Austin FC and the Seattle Sounders may be close in the standings, but their approach to the season could hardly be more different.
One team is 8-7-7, +5 and insisting that they’re going for silverware this year. That’s Brian Schmetzer’s side that is two wins from an Open Cup title and 4-0-1 in their last five league games.
The other team waived a DP early, intentionally left space open and is hoping for summer help can rescue a season once it has just 10 games left, calling it a rebuilding season. Austin is 8-8-6, -6 with 7 points in their last six played.
Saturday’s match offers the winner some space away from the play-in game. The loser will hover in the danger zone of missing the playoffs.
Answering Three Questions for Verde All Day is Phil.
SaH: Sebastián Driussi was an MVP candidate back in 2022. Is he on his way back to that form, or is his time as an MLS great already up?
VAD: To quote from the classic Magic 8 Ball, “Reply hazy; try again later.” Driussi had a 22g/7a season in 2022 in part because he had a good thing going with Diego Fagundez as a wide playmaker, and he might be getting that again with Austin FC’s newest Designated Player, Osman Bukari, who everyone’s hoping will be far better than Emiliano Rigoni, the team’s prior DP winger who was jettisoned in May before a ludicrous auto-trigger would have kicked in to extend his subpar production into the 2025 season.
But he’s dropped off in part because of some injury woes, including at the start of this season, and there’s some concern that’s a sword of Damocles hanging over his head going forward. His ’23 production ended up being about half of what it was in ’22, though, and he’s not on a much better pace this season. But even though it might not show up in goal contributions, Verde’s definitely better when he’s on the field, even though he’s a second striker playing in a one-striker, dual 8 system that’s usually set up in a 4-3-3.
SaH: Austin’s goals allowed is pretty middle of the road both at home and away (16 allowed at home, 15 allowed away), but they’ve scored 20 goals at home and 5 away to power a MUCH better home record. What drives that improved attack at home?
VAD: Austin FC head coach Josh Wolff will tell you that it’s the potent energy of Q2 Stadium’s boisterous home crowds, and to be fair, La Murga really does bring it 17 times a year. But it’s also due to Verde being more conservative on the road: Wolff’s been saying repeatedly this season that an average of two points per home match and a point per away match will get you into the playoffs, and it really seems that for a lot of road games this year, Verde plays ultra-conservative as it if it’s trying for a draw.
I did an article earlier this week highlighting that, while it’s better at home, Verde’s raw numbers for shots and shots on goal are dismal compared to the rest of MLS. In 22 games this season, they’ve had two shots on goal or fewer in 13 of those. Every other team in the league’s got at least three shots in goal in more than half their matches. They’re also dreadful in categories like key passes and progressive passes.
SaH: With the Verde getting closer to full player availability is this the opportunity for them to go on a run?
VAD: They’re definitely going to be helped by Diego Rubio and Dani Pereira coming back from bad-behavior suspensions, and they’re definitely set on the back line as Julio Cascante’s back from his Copa America duty. (He finished his time with Costa Rica in a match at Q2, so it was real easy for him to make training at St. David’s Performance Center the next morning.)
But I think a run is asking a lot of this squad for at least the next week. The roster’s been kept purposefully thin this season so sporting director Rodolfo Borrell could bring in players, and once Bukari, fullback Mikkel Desler, and center back Oleksandr Svatok can play starting July 20, Austin should be a lot better. But Wolff’s called this a rebuilding year, and they still need to upgrade at striker before they can do more than make the playoffs and die against a top-3 West team, which is my prediction for them as ’24 gets into better focus.
Check out Verde All Day for the Reverse and other previews.
