Ship's Log, August 24: Fearing LA
One of the different things about soccer as opposed to other North American sports leagues is that there are several trophies to hunt every year. Seattle Sounders started 2024 on a quest for up to four majors (MLS Cup, Supporters Shield, U.S. Open Cup and Leagues Cup).
It's not yet September and they're already out of two of those hunts, which is true for most of the league, sure. But it's not true for LAFC, who remain alive in all four chases for silverware. Columbus Crew are hunting for three. The other four teams still competing for the Shield (Miami, Cincy, Galaxy and RSL) are, like Seattle, hunting for two.
What may be odd about this year's league is that even though there are six teams in the Shield race, there are also three Western Conference teams that are essentially eliminated from the playoffs. With only 8-9 games left there's no reason to think St. Louis, K.C. or San Jose are making the playoffs (Sporting can at least hang their hat on knowing they can still win the Open Cup).
The East is a mess at the bottom. Awful Atlanta, who used their summer window to put money in a bank account rather than the team, is somehow above the orange line, but they have a ppm of 1.12, barely behind Toronto at 1.15. None of the East's bottom eight should be considered for a Sporting KC-esque run from 8th to a conference final.
Seattle, in a season that has frustrated fans enough to minimize the matchday experience, is somehow not just middling, but decent. With 1.48 ppm they aren't great, in a year when greatness is required to be at the top of a conference. But they aren't bad.
In fact, the Sounders will probably end the season looking good.
The schedule is favorable, with only one match against a great team – the dominant Columbus Crew, out in Columbus. Take a look and circle the matches you think Seattle can win:
- at Minnesota
- at Portland
- at Columbus
- v Kansas City
- v San Jose
- v Houston
- at Vancouver
- at Colorado
- v Portland
MLSsoccer's power rankings have Seattle 8th, one of the best of the crowded middle. American Soccer Analysis, by expected points, has the Sounders 9th and Sagarin has them merely 13th.
Amid the jumbled mess of the middle of the pack, the Seattle Sounders have a schedule, an opportunity, to finish fourth in the West.
It's hard to remain confident in a chance at silverware, even with that favorable schedule – LAFC is in the way of both run-ins. There's a Cup semifinal at Starfire, where the only reason to think Seattle can beat LA is because Starfire is magic. The Black & Gold are not-quite-even money with the Sounders, despite that massive home-field advantage.
As Sounders fans we're rather familiar with an LA side getting in the way of our ambitions. That's how we existed from 2009 through 2014. Despite in many cases being the better side over the course of a season, the specter of a SoCal team caused fear in the playoffs and then the Galaxy won, a lot.
There's no real way to get over that. Winning a double didn't matter. Being the higher seed didn't matter.
Beating them did.
That long-standing Puget Sound disdain for Southern California is part of why being "better than Bob" felt so good. It didn't matter that LA had two teams, the Sounders dismantled one dynasty and stopped another, for a bit.
It's a swagger that's now gone – 0-3, 0-3.
The run-in will be a blast. We and the team will be correct in thinking that things are better. But they're unlikely to get better enough, even with LAFC likely selling one of their better talents without a replacement.
And that's why it's reasonable to think the Sounders could exceed their win totals and ppm for every season they went to MLS Cup and still feel as if 2024 ended in disappointment.
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Catching up on Sounder at Heart
Here's what you missed on the site this week.
Sounders
Next match: August 24 at Minnesota United at 3:45 pm PDT on FOX and free on Apple TV (all matches are free this weekend).
- Sounders trying to focus on positives in return to league play
- Déjà vu all over again: Sounders slapped by LAFC
- Lobbing Scorchers: LAFC, Legal Owners of the Seattle Sounders
- Postgame Pontifications: We can’t keep doing this
- Realio’s Ratings: Did we learn anything?
- Mailbag episode: When will Sounders be good again?
- Winter window critical for Sounders to rebuild fans’ trust
- MLS Fantasy Week 23: Back in business
Reign
Next match: Aug. 25 against NC at 7 pm PDT, featuring the Megan Rapinoe number retirement ceremony ahead of the match. You can get in and support Sounder at Heart.
- Reign have several activities planned for Megan Rapinoe jersey retirement
- Reign FC trade Bethany Balcer to Racing Louisville for Jaelin Howell
- NWSL, players sign historic CBA
Defiance
Next match: Sunday August 25 at The Town FC at 5 pm PDT on MLS Season Pass.
Spokane
Velocity play at One Knoxville right now.
Zephyr are off this weekend.
Looking back at the news
Everything else you need to know
Megan Rapinoe
- Megan Rapinoe on Getting Her Jersey Retired: “I Can Still Feel Myself Out There. We Had Some Good Times”. (GQ)
- Rapinoe talks life after soccer ahead of jersey retirement ceremony | Q&A. (Seattle Times)
Why did Racing Louisville trade their captain to Reign? Because they're making a playoff push.
Cincinnati and Denver ownership groups met with the NWSL to try to be the 16th team.
This is a link to a video titled "Sofia Huerta and Puppies." It's what it says on the tin.