Well, folks, we are now in the last stretch of the Fantasy season, where the lucky 200 who made it into the Fantasy Champions League will duke it out for a prize in these last six rounds. And if you weren't lucky enough to get in, there are still league prizes on the table, and plenty of ways to move up in the rankings with some tricky weeks on the way.
And this Week 25 is certainly a tricky one. There are just six games this week (two of them rescheduled from earlier in the season), and five of them overlap. There is also a major swath of international absences to be careful about, so many of the regulars will be gone, changing the texture of most of these matchups. Build your team with caution!
Before we get into it, I was fortunate enough to be invited to appear on the MLS Fantasy Insider podcast this week to join the roundtable on Week 24 reflections and our thoughts on Week 25. The episode is available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and plenty of other podcast sources.
Quick Rankings
GK - Steve Clark, Andrew Thomas, Jimmy Maurer, Abraham Romero, Yohei Takaoka
DEF - Micael dos Santos, Ranko Veselinovic, Rudy Camacho, Cameron Harper, John Tolkin, Jackson Ragen
MID - Marcel Hartel, Hector Herrera, Amine Bassi, Albert Rusnak, Carles Gil, Brian Gutierrez, Jared Stroud, Erik Thommy, Sebastian Lletget
FWD - Diego Rossi, Christian Benteke, Jordan Morris, Ezequiel Ponce, Simon Becher, Cedric Teuchert, Hugo Cuypers, Paul Arriola
Week 25 schedule and thoughts
4:30 pm
Columbus v. Seattle
Key Absences: CLB - Cucho Hernandez, Mohamed Farsi, Steven Moreira, Malte Amundsen, Jacen Russell-Rowe, Patrick Schulte, Nicholas Hagen; SEA - Nouhou, Obed Vargas
I am very interested in how this game plays out. Columbus is missing two of their starting defenders and will be without their top three goalkeepers (Schulte and Hagen to call-ups, Bush to injury). Plus, star striker Cucho is getting a shot with Colombia. Columbus has shown itself to be mighty dangerous even without Cucho, so Diego Rossi is a must-add this week, especially with Nouhou out. Christian Ramirez is a consideration, but I am not as high on him as Rossi. Rudy Camacho will be the Crew's defensive leader and should be strongly considered.
However, I am high on the Sounders' offense in this one. Albert Rusnak is one of my top four options, given his recent success on free kicks. The Crew will be playing essentially their fourth-string keeper, Abraham Romero, who they acquired midseason from LAFC. This will be an uncomfortable defensive formation for Columbus and I think Rusnak can take advantage by getting a goal contribution and plenty of key plays from free kicks. I also have Jordan Morris as my bench forward of the week, as I think he could be on the end of some of those free kicks and may take advantage of any Columbus miscues. Jackson Ragen is here for potential free kick success on offense, as he has proven a dangerous target, plus I think Seattle can pitch a shutout so might be worth a bench spot as well (I don't think a CS is likely but he may be worth the speculation given the weak options this week).
New England v St. Louis
Key Absences: NE - Xavier Arreaga, Esmir Bajraktarevic; STL - None.
New England has had a couple of interesting matches since Leagues Cup, destroying Montreal on the road 5-0, then losing at RSL 2-0. I believe they are a dangerous but flawed team. Carles Gil seems to be back in form and is a very strong selection this week. St. Louis is obviously much better than earlier in the season thanks to their new additions, getting a 2-1 win over LAG last week, but their defense is still exploitable. At home, I expect Gil to get 3+ BPs and he has high potential for goal contributions. I am not high on any other New England player – I don't trust their defense and the offense around Gil is unpredictable. New signing Langoni may be worth a spot, but he has not started a match yet. Wood had two goals against Montreal but only played 45 minutes against RSL, splitting those minutes with Vrioni. Vrioni is a high-risk, high-reward play if he starts.
St. Louis have suddenly become one of the best squads in the West. I fully expect them to win this one. Their key addition has been Marcel Hartel, who has been a midfield maestro, providing goals and assists since arriving. His free kicks are dangerous and one of my must-add players this week. The forward additions, Cedric Teuchert and Simon Becher, have also been huge additions and possibly worth adding. They will likely be goal dependent though, compared to Hartel, so I just have them in the mix for my third forward instead of a top option. I'd stay away from the defenders in this one.
New York RB v Kansas City
Key Absences: NYRB - Lewis Morgan, Emil Forsberg, Noah Elie, Carlos Coronel; SKC - Willy Agada, Stephen Afrifa
NYRB are the favorites here for good reason, as SKC has lost 14 league matches this year. So, you may want some NYRB players. Cameron Harper and John Tolkin are your best options there. Harper is playing in the midfield and has had 3 BPs in each of this last three starts, with KPs and Shots bonuses. Those are great numbers and suggests he'll add to his five goals on the year. Tolkin has not returned to form ever since the Olympics and Leagues Cup, but there was a period where he was reliably getting about 4 BPs in an average match, though he only has one goal and no assists on the season.
I would not pick NYRB defenders or Meara in goal to chase a CS, as SKC has only been shut out four times this year. SKC can score anywhere (besides Columbus, where they lost twice by 4-0 scorelines). Harper and Tolkin are here because they should have a floor of around 5 points if they aren't carded, and certainly could hold a CS. Since NYRB is missing their top two offensive options, I am not excited about Vanezir or Manoel. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of them go off, and Manoel has averaged 6.6 points in his last five starts, but that drops to 4.5 if you expand the sample to 10 games.
For SKC, I would only take Erik Thommy. He consistently gets BPs through KPs and some through crosses, and has put up some very solid scores when he manages to get a goal contribution. He's only on 5g /4a for the year, though, so don't expect huge numbers. The rest of SKC's players besides Agada have ranged from inconsistent to bad. Don't take their defense, and godspeed if you try and guess which mid/forward will go off this week.
5:30 pm
Houston v. Los Angeles FC
Key Absences: HOU - None; LAFC - Denis Bouanga, Mateusz Bogusz, Omar Campos, Maxime Chanot, Cristian Olivera, Oliver Giroud
Well now, here we go. Houston just bossed LAFC around to a 2-0 road win last week, now they meet again and LAFC is missing their attack? Kei Kamara against the world? Yeah, I am fully expecting Houston to run it back at home. LAFC was probably kinda exhausted from losing the Leagues Cup final to Columbus and then having the pleasure of playing at Starfire, but I don't see them having any more success when they are missing all of their attacking starters. Steve Clark and Micael dos Santos are the defenders to take here. You could add Griffin Dorsey or Erik Sviatchenko to try and hit on some big attacking bonuses, but Micael outscores them most weeks.
Hector Herrera is a must-add choice. He had 128 passes in LA with seven KPs. He has an extremely high floor, and against this kind of competition he should see a ton of the ball at home. 6+ bonus points is on the table, though I would not go into this expecting a monster game. If you want to chase a monster game, try Ezequiel Ponce. He's been scoring plenty of goals and will likely have some great opportunities in this one if Houston have as much of the ball as I expect. If you want to double-dip in Houston's midfield and are less confident in their defense, Amine Bassi has been averaging over 7 KPs per game himself (less than Herrera) and has two goals, five assists on the season (more than Herrera, who's at 1/1).
Given their absences, I cannot recommend any LAFC player this week. You might get lucky with a defender, as Campos and Chanot have rotated out plenty, but it's a risky prospect when facing a team who will have so much of the ball.
Chicago v. D.C.
Key Absences: CHI - Ariel Lassiter, Georgios Koutsias, Rafael Czichos; DCU - Boris Enow, Aaron Herrera, Matti Peltola
Chicago lost again last week, getting steamrolled 4-1 at home to Miami. Now, I'm not saying D.C. is the same kind of juggernaut, but D.C. did go into Toronto and smash and grab a 3-1 win through two bench players scoring goals. This is primed for a massive game from Christian Benteke, who has feasted in road games against weaker defenses – three goals in Atlanta, two in Montreal, two in Minnesota. This could be a lame duck week for Benteke, but given the other options, he's the most likely to score 15+ points this round.
I would not go near any defenders in this matchup. I think Hugo Cuypers is worth considering as a third forward, as DC has had a terrible defense this year with 55 goals conceded; only Montreal and the Earthquakes have been worse. On the other hand, DC's xGA is at 39.1, which at 15 goals better would put them middle of the East. Regression to mean coming? Or do we just trust the true numbers considering the season-long trend? Whatever the case, Cuypers would be the forward to own from Chicago.
As for other midfielders, Brian Gutierrez, Maren Haile-Selassie and Jared Stroud or Ted Ku-DiPietro could have strong matches, but none of them have been particularly reliable for fantasy. They all earn around 1 BP per match and only score well in fantasy if they are on the score sheet. Gutierrez is likely Chicago's PK taker, for what it's worth. MHS had four games in a row with 7+ points, but he has not reached 7 since Week 20. KDP has had assists in back-to-back weeks, but those are two of his three on the season. Stroud has seven assists, but none since Week 15. I think one or two of these guys will hit, it is just tough to call which one this week.
7:30 pm
Vancouver v Dallas
Key Absences: VAN - Brian White, Ryan Gauld, Fafa Picault, Pedro Vite, Ali Ahmed, Andres Cuba; FCD - Ruan
This is the key matchup of the week, in my opinion. If you call this game correctly, you'll be a long way towards the top of the standings. On the one hand, Vancouver is a strong team, fifth in the West and seventh by PPG, playing at home. But they will be missing their top two forwards, their three best midfielders and their starting left mid. Dallas is missing almost no one, and, though they lost last week and lost both Leagues Cup matches, they have wins in six of their last 11 league matches. In those league matches, they had multiple goals in nine of the 11, their defense letting them down against Seattle, SKC and the Rapids in 3-2 losses. Overall, Dallas has been held scoreless only five times all year (including Leagues Cup). Same for the Whitecaps, though the absences will be sorely missed.
So! I think Vancouver's defense is capable of a shutout but I am not counting on it. I actually think Dallas's defense has a better chance at a clean sheet, so I am looking at Jimmy Maurer as the better late-game goalkeeper. That said, I don't think either side will keep a clean sheet, despite Vancouver's absences, so I am looking towards Ranko Veselinovic as my late defender (to hopefully scrub) as he is the most consistent BP producer.
For midfielders, Sebastian Lletget is the man – he had a goal and two assists against DCU two weeks ago and put up six points against Colorado without a goal contribution. I don't trust him yet, but he is looking much better in this stretch of the season than he has in a while. If you have to pick a Vancouver mid, then I guess you want Damir Kreilach? I expect him to be the most advanced of any of their midfielder options and a potential goal-scorer.
At forward, I think Paul Arriola is the man to own. He sat out last week for yellow card accumulation, and he will look to continue his three-game goalscoring streak. Musa and Ferreira have been injured and are working their way back to minutes, and Farrington has been good but is ceding minutes to the other guys. None of the Vancouver options are notable, I think. It might be smart to stick Arriola in your starting lineup to see how Benteke (or whoever) does from the bench to give yourself some flexibility.
Captain Candidates
Hector Herrera - Herrera is my top option this week for his extremely high floor. He'll likely have six points just from playing his game, and he could reach 10+ points potentially without a goal contribution. If he does get on the score sheet, that's just icing on top!
Marcel Hartel - St. Louis has been fantastic and Hartel has been key. One of the highest ceiling this week and most likely to have a goal contribution. I am giving him a slight ding for having to travel to New England, though STL was fine in Portland.
Christian Benteke - My boom or bust candidate, the most likely guy to get you double-digit points this week. He'll have a 2-pt week or a 15-pt week, seemingly no inbetween with Benteke. If you really want to make a splash and bet big, go for Benteke.
Carles Gil - I suppose a top-tier playmaker at home against a bad defense is a good idea. He still had 6 points at RSL despite New England's overall ineffectiveness. Almost but not quite a differential choice.
That wraps it for the week, good luck everyone! We're on our way to the end.
