Good news, everyone! We are back to a "normal" MLS schedule, with a full slate of 4:30 pm to 7:30 pm games, plus a Sunday all to our own. There are a lot of intriguing options this week, given some enticing matchups, big rivalry games, and major playoff implications across the league. The biggest headline is that Leo Messi is fit and will play tomorrow, though we will have to wait until lineups to see if he starts. While it is reasonable to exercise a bit of caution in rushing him back to your fantasy lineup, for much of the season he was scoring more in 45 minutes than all but the handful of (fantasy) elite players were scoring in 90+. He could be a very fun and high-ceiling bench play.
Quick Rankings
GK: (early) Brad Guzan, Sean Johnson, Kristijan Kahlina, Steve Clark, (late) Yohei Takaoka, Stefan Frei/Andrew Thomas
DEF: Brooks Lennon, Jordi Alba, Dagur Thorhallsson, Adilson Malanda, Jackson Ragen, Ranko Veselinovic, Micael dos Santos
MID: Albert Rusnák, Marcel Hartel, Riqui Puig, Djordje Mihailovic, Evander, Luciano Acosta, Ryan Gauld, Hector Herrera, Marco Reus, Saba Lobjanidze, Mateusz Bogusz, Facundo Torres
FWD: Cucho Hernandez, Luis Suarez, Jordan Morris, Gabriel Pec, Denis Bouanga, Christian Benteke, Rafael Navarro, Simon Becher, Leo Messi (?)
Captain options in bold
Week 26 schedule
4:30 pm
Atlanta v Nashville
Nashville have been proving themselves the worst team in the league pretty much every week lately. It is not entirely clear what the deal is, whether it's Mukhtar's fall off, a broken system or broken morale, or mismatched parts from Nashville's frugality. Their last four MLS matches: 0-3 vs. Orlando, 0-3 at Philadelphia, 0-2 vs. Austin, 0-3 at Orlando (again!). This is one of the best setups of the season for an Atlanta shutout (who just had one on the road at Charlotte), so Brooks Lennon gets another rollout in defense, despite some inconsistency lately, and Brad Guzan might be a solid pairing for an early part to a switcheroo. The best attacking option is Saba Lobjanidze. Since returning from the Euros, Saba has had six MLS starts, averaging 7 ppg with two goals, three assists, and 10 BPs. In his two home starts, he had 10 and 11 points. I think there's a high likelihood he equals or exceeds that.
Montreal v Charlotte
Montreal is, like Nashville, a very poor team. Charlotte have shown themselves to be more "decent" lately than "good," and are at risk of slipping back to a battle for the 8th and 9th playoff spots as they slide and the group of Orlando, Toronto, DC, Atlanta and Philadelphia surge. Still, Charlotte are the clear favorites in Montreal and have a better road defense than Montreal has at home. A risk on the road, but Kristjian Kahlina and Adilson Malanda are a strong early defense duo. I do not believe there are any offensive pieces to trust here, perhaps Liel Abada if you were so inclined.
DC v NYCFC
DC has been better lately, getting two road wins in Chicago and Toronto. NYCFC meanwhile has been stagnant, LDDDD in their last five matches. There will likely be goals both ways, but the only player I'm considering here is Christian Benteke. He got his goal last week and is still top 10 in npxG/90. Of course, his opponent Alonso Martinez is tied for fourth in npxG/90, but NYCFC have struggled on the road. I'm okay with Benteke for his elite ability, while Martinez is more of a matchup play for me. DC will be without key midfielder Mateusz Klich though, so I might tap the brakes on picking Benteke or other DC offensive options.
Cincinnati v Columbus
Here's one of the whoppers of the week, the "Hell is Real" derby. This one is looking like a great opportunity for the Crew to get back on track, as Cincinnati is missing CBs Matt Miazga, Ian Murphy, Miles Robinson and Nick Hagglund, plus Lucho's form has fallen off dramatically. Cucho Hernandez is the first name that jumps out as the beneficiary here, though don't be surprised if Diego Rossi takes the day. Lucho Acosta is of course a perennially great player, and will need to spark the team if Cincy is to have a chance, but he has been dealing with injury and may see limited minutes (he is not on the injury report, though). I would take him from the bench if he's starting. Also, I'd advise against taking any defenders in an intense rivalry like this – things can get weird.
Miami v Philadelphia
The headline, of course, is that Leo Messi is back. Martino says he will be playing and there is chatter that his ankle is good enough to start. If he starts then I think he's worth adding to lineups, but it is totally reasonable if you want to hold off to see how well he has recovered. Either way, Luis Suarez has to be near the top of the players you consider for the week, as he's had double digits in his past two games and likely even gets a lift from more Messi involvement. Jordi Alba is also in a great position to have a shot at a clean sheet as well as a goal contribution.
Orlando v New England
Word on the street is that Caleb Porter is falling apart behind the scenes, between his meltdown at the refs, locker room clashes and arguments with ownership after their 2-2 draw against St. Louis. He's suspended for this game. That may be good for New England, but Orlando did go up and beat them in Gillette, 3-1, in July. I am hesitantly predicting another lopsided result in Orlando's favor. A triple stack of Pedro Gallese, Dagur Thorhallsson, and Facundo Torres may be a killer way to start the week.
Toronto v Austin
This is up there amongst my "games to avoid" of the week. Toronto has Bernardeschi and Insigne as potential options, but Austin has been hot and cold on the road. Their xGA on the road is average, but they have been able to turn that into road clean sheets against Nashville, Minnesota, Vancouver, Houston and Seattle. Of course, they have been shut out six times on the road, and they have surrendered multiple goals on the road six times. Maybe Sean Johnson is worth an add? Richie Lareya? I don't know. I think you have safer picks and ones with higher upside elsewhere.
5:30 pm
Chicago v New York Red Bulls
Another game to avoid for me. Chicago have been bad, losing at home recently, but NYRB has not been a particularly strong road team, going 3-7-4 (WDL) on the road. Could be fireworks, and Lewis Morgan would probably be at the center of it, or it could be a boring 0-0 or 1-1 affair. I'm skipping this one.
Houston v Salt Lake
Houston managed to keep a clean sheet against LAFC two matches in a row, can they make it a third? I think that's likely, unless Chicho Arango shows up healthy and reenergized. Micael dos Santos and Hector Herrera are worthy choices this week, given Houston's defensive strength and Herrera's dependability. I probably would not pick Ponce given RSL's defensive strength, and I'm hesitant to go with RSL options until they prove they are a top West team again.
St. Louis v Minnesota
This one is a major opportunity for points, as both teams have had dangerous attacks recently, with 14 goals combined between them in their past three games! Robin Lod and Marcel Hartel are the two at the center of the action, pulling the attacking strings with passing stats and key plays. I think Hartel is a top choice this week, and Lod is a great differential given St. Louis continues to have defensive struggles. I don't think any of the forwards in this one are reliable enough to pick, given other options across the league, but I would expect one or more of Bongokuhle Hlongwane, Kelvin Yeboah, Cedric Teuchert or Simon Becher to earn 8+ points.
6:30 pm
Colorado v Portland
A very intriguing matchup with huge playoff implications, as Colorado sits in fourth on 44 points and Portland is in eighth at 40 points. A Portland win would (at least temporarily) put them ahead of Seattle (currently in fifth) and one point behind Colorado, potentially jumping Vancouver and Houston in the process. The Rapids had a big 3-2 win in Dallas two weeks ago and Portland beat Seattle that same weekend. This will show who has the chops to challenge for a top-4 playoff position.
Djordje Mihailovic is top of the list to add from this game, given he had 7 points in Dallas (which would have been 14 if he had scored his PK try) through an assist, 14 KPs and 5 fouls suffered. Portland had defensive success against Seattle, but I don't see them replicating that result on the road at altitude. Evander is always a good choice since he has gotten it done all over the league, but I don't think he is essential this week. I may regret that later. Rafael Navarro had a standout game in Dallas but has been consistent week-to-week.
7:30 pm
Vancouver v San Jose
Lots of meat on the bone for this matchup, as San Jose tries to bounce back from a demoralizing home loss to Minnesota. They are stuck on 17 points, least in the league by nine. They still have fight, as evident from their 3-0 win at RSL two weeks ago, but I wouldn't count on them. Brian White is still in concussion protocol, so it will be Ryan Gauld as the Whitecap to own. He's quietly gaining a reputation as the "Scottish Messi" (tongue in cheek, obviously) for his ability to create for Vancouver. The evening defense stack of Yohei Takaoka and Ranko Veselinovic is very popular as the top half of your defensive switcheroos this week. I think they're a great choice! I don't think anyone else here is worth owning, unless you want a triple Vancouver defense formation. In that case you probably want one of Mathais Laborda or Bjorn Inge Utvik.
Los Angeles v Los Angeles
Oh boy, another? This is the third matchup between these teams this year, and the second in a row in Carson. Each team has a big change since the last match in the additions of Giroud and Reus. I think of the two, the Galaxy had the bigger addition, because Giroud has not looked all that special since joining. Maybe this is the week he announces himself? Anyway, the last meeting was a 2-1 win for LAFC with goals from Kamara, Bouanga (PK) and Pec. 2.5 xG vs 0.9 xG in LAFC's favor.
Denis Bouanga had 12 points in both of these matchups this year and should be one of the top 5 forwards you consider. I don't think he's automatic, though, as his only good MLS game in his past four starts was against Seattle; in the three other matches he had 2, 2 and 3 points.
I actually think Gabriel Pec is the better choice, as he is on a better run of form and will be enabled by Reus in the attack. Behind him, Riqui Puig is the midfielder I like best from this matchup. I've seen chatter about him disappearing against LAFC, but he's still scored 5/6 fantasy points against them this year without a goal contribution. In the first match he had 120 passes but missed the pass accuracy benchmark for points, which would have pushed him to 8 points. He had 128 passes in the return leg, and had KP and Shots bonus points in each. With Reus to now help shoulder the load, I think Puig will continue his streak of games with double-digit points.
Beyond these three, Mateusz Bogusz is still a strong choice if you think LAFC win this, and Marco Reus could be the midfield star of this one. Maybe you get lucky and Giroud goes off for you. Maybe you are crazy and go for one of the defenses here on your bench, ready to switch to Seattle on the flip side if the gamble doesn't pay off. A lot of big choices here and opportunities to win the fantasy week.
4:15 pm (Sunday)
Seattle v Kansas City
I don't think I need to say much about this one. Albert Rusnák should be on everyone's team (what a performance last week, even given the handicap), and Jordan Morris should be a top consideration based on his history vs SKC, his form, and the matchup against SKC's defense this year. On defense, Kansas City scores goals all over the place, like they did in New York, but Seattle still has a top-5 defense by every metric you can find. Jackson Ragen and Stefan Frei/Andrew Thomas are likely worth the risk. I will probably regret this when Johnny Russell does something ridiculous, as usual, though. If you want to save budget, Pedro de la Vega could be in for a breakout game. He's had a couple of great goals called off for minor infractions so far – is this where his contributions count? We'll see.
Captain Considerations
- Albert Rusnák - My captain this week, because this is a fantastic matchup. He's had double-digit points in five of his last eight starts, and 8+ points in seven of his last 10. The low games were 4 pts v LAFC, 5 pts @ POR, 6 pts @ HOU. I am highly confident Rusnák will continue his career year.
- Cucho Hernandez - Back from the international break, he'll be looking to break through Cincy's depleted defense (sorry, sorry, I'm trying to delete it). If you are going a non-homer route, Cucho should be quite high on your list.
- Ryan Gauld - His form has been Rusnák-esque lately, though he has missed some time due to international duty. At home vs SJ is a great time for him to get back on track.
- Luis Suarez - One of the highest-ceiling players for the week, he seems to sneeze and bag two goals. Plus a good matchup, and he could have Messi back.
- Leo Messi - If he starts, then... even with 45 minutes could easily outscore 10 of your other starters. Somehow he makes it work. Fade him at your peril.
Big complicated week everyone, best of luck!
