MLS Fantasy Week 28: Three to go

Good evening everyone, hope you’re ready to wrap up the Fantasy year soon, as we have just three weeks left! This one is our last “normal” week, with just a slate of Saturday games in the usual time slots. There are some notable absences this week, the LA Galaxy (standout fantasy performances last week) are on bye and incredible midfielder Evander earned his eighth yellow and is suspended this week again. His counterpart in Vancouver, Ryan Gauld, also may be missing this weekend due to injury, and there are some other injuries to keep an eye on. Still, there are some fun and meaningful matchups this week as teams fully enter playoffs mode.

Quick Rankings

GK - Drake Callendar, Andre Blake --> Stefan Frei

DEF - Jordi Alba, Kai Wagner, John Tolkin --> Jackson Ragen, Ranko Veselinovic

MID - Lucho Acosta, Djordje Mihailovic, Hany Mukhtar, Carles Gil, Marcel Hartel, Albert Rusnak, Ryan Gauld (Questionable), Facundo Torres, Luca Orellano, Daniel Gazdag, Santiago Rodriguez, Robin Lod

FWD - Leo Messi, Cucho Hernandez, Jordan Morris, Kelvin Yeboah, Tai Baribo, Christian Benteke, David Ferreira, Simon Becher, Brian White (late alt)

Week 28 Schedule

4:30 pm pacific

Montreal v San Jose - Last week Montreal had a four-point week, earning a tie in New England 2-2 and handling Chicago at home 2-0. San Jose also earned a midweek 2-2 tie (in Seattle, sadly) but fell at home 1-2 to St. Louis. The bad news for fantasy purposes is that Montreal does not have anyone really worth taking. Josef Martinez has a few great weeks and many more duds. Last week’s hero Nathan-Dylan Saliba (1 goal, 1 assist) has not done anything of note in fantasy in his 19 prior games, with 4 pts or less in every game before this past week. And I hopefully should not need to caution you against taking San Jose players on the road. There will be goals in this one as these two defenses have conceded the most and second-most goals on the season, but it’s anyone’s guess where they’ll come from.
DC v Columbus - The Crew are on the road after their disappointment against America this week, failing against Mexican competitors in a “cup final” for the second time this year. They will surely be out to prove themselves and try and secure at least a top-two spot in the East for the playoffs. Despite the midweek match, I think this is a great opportunity for Columbus to show their stuff, though I wouldn’t count out DC as they scrap for a playoff spot. Despite sitting in 13th place, they are only three points behind Toronto and Philadelphia in 8th and 9th. That’s how close it is at the bottom in the East. Given the situation and matchup, Cucho Hernandez is the only one I am interested in here, but I am very interested indeed. Christian Benteke could have a great game against a tired defense though.
Cincinnati v LAFC - This is one of the biggest matchups of the week, LAFC has been struggling in league play (0 wins, three losses, two draws in their last five) but did put SKC to bed in overtime in the Open Cup Final. LAFC could use that momentum to get back on track in the league, but Lucho Acosta and Luca Orellano are clicking again in what could be a rough one for LAFC if they can't find the counter. I suspect LAFC will go for this one but will be outmatched given the extra 120 minutes midweek, especially if Aaron Long is unable to play. Lucho Acosta when healthy is always a reasonable play, potentially to put on your bench and see how he does.
Miami v Charlotte - This is my prime match of the week, as I have triple Miami players at the moment. Miami had a pair of road draws last week in a quiet week for Messi (hope you didn't captain him! might have been worth the risk but it did not work out). Charlotte comes into Miami off of a 4-0 roust of New England. Despite that, I have Drake Callendar and Jordi Alba along with Messi as Charlotte have the fewest goals of any playoff team in the league. I suspect last week was more about New England falling apart (Carles Gil was fighting with our old friend Xavier Arreaga) than Charlotte suddenly finding their way in the attacking zone.
New England v Nashville - Last week Hany Mukhtar had a solid week as Nashville earned four points in two home games, and Carles Gil had a similarly solid week even though New England only had one point. The Revs still have a game in hand, but they are almost certainly out of the playoffs now, while Nashville have done enough to stay right in the thick of it. I think there's a lot of possible outcomes for this game, but a lot of that depends on whether New England is motivated at this point to try and fight for a playoff spot. I don't think Gil or Mukhtar are unreasonable picks this week, you can make a case for either of them, but I am looking elsewhere at the moment.
NYRB v NYCFC - Ah yes, the New York/New Jersey derby! In their previous meeting NYCFC won 2-1 at home, now it is Red Bull Arena’s time to host. NYRB did not have the best week last week, losing 1-2 at Chicago and needing a 90+7 goal just to tie at home to Atlanta. The Red Bulls have just two wins in their last 14 league games, of course with only two losses in that span as well. Meanwhile, NYCFC lost at home to Philadelphia 1-5 (!) and then tied at home to Miami 1-1. Even though these teams are fourth and seventh in the East, neither of them seems threatening as the playoffs approach. It’s hard to pick one here, but if you want someone from the game your best bet is probably Santi Rodriguez. He’s picked it back up the last few games and could be the difference-maker here. On the other side, Lewis Morgan has fallen off and Emil Forsberg has not made it back from injury yet. Plus, I don’t think any of the forwards or defenders are trustworthy enough to take this week given the form of both squads. However, John Tolkin has been very sharp in the attack recently and could be worth a spot just for those bonus points and goal-contribution potential.
Philadelphia v Atlanta - This match may have the biggest playoff implications of the week, at least in the East, as a win for Atlanta would pull them even with Philadelphia and Toronto (for the moment at least) and deadlocked for the last playoff spot. Philly had a massive week last week, scoring nine goals and allowing one, whipping NYCFC and DC. Tai Baribo and Daniel Gazdag had huge weeks, naturally, and Kai Wagner and Quinn Sullivan had pretty good contributions as well. Personally, I am not sold on Gazdag on a weekly basis as he is heavily goal reliant for points. He gets some BPs but many others fare better. However, if you think Philly roll again against Atlanta, then Gazdag and Baribo are great. I do like Wagner either way though.

5:30 pm

Austin v Salt Lake - RSL managed to score six goals last week even though Arango only played 29 minutes. It was Anderson Julio leading the line with a three-goal week. Meanwhile, Austin snagged a point at LAFC but lost at home to Houston. RSL is still second in the West for now, while Austin is on the outside looking in, seven points behind Minnesota in ninth. With one point in their last four games, Austin has probably fallen out of range to claim a spot. They are still a dangerous team, but RSL is going to be favored here. I’m not taking anyone in this match as, considering RSL defenders, Austin has had some late winners and the timing makes it difficult to try and switcheroo with Frei/Ragen in the evening, plus RSL just gave up five goals last week as well. And I am not confident yet in Julio or Arango or Goncalves or Luna on the road. Might be worth a shot though.
Chicago v Toronto - Toronto had a terrible week, losing at home and on the road 0-2 both matches. They also just lost the Canadian Championship in BC on PKs after 0-0 in regular time. For those counting at home, that’s 270 minutes without a goal. Now, I am still not taking Chicago defenders, playing Chicago is often a reason teams find their shooting boots again, but I don’t think it’s a crazy proposition. On offense Chicago remains terribly inconsistent, I wouldn’t pick up anyone here.
Dallas v Orlando - Orlando had an interesting week, taking care of business against Charlotte and then pressing the Crew all match in what ended up a 4-3 loss for Orlando. Facundo Torres had a huge week and Luis Muriel had a brace against Columbus. Dallas meanwhile had five goals of their own, losing 3-2 to RSL and then beating a heavily rotated LAFC at home 3-1. Logan Farrington is seeming less like a future star and more like a current star, and Jesus Ferreria is returning to his old self. This will be a tough game; I think Torres and Ferreria are worth considering but not sure I’m willing to pick Ferreria yet or Torres on the road (his points his last five road games: 5, 3, 2, 3, 5).
Minnesota v Colorado - Minnesota has been on a weird trend since Leagues Cup: they have won their three road games, but lost their two home games. I kind of think that trend continues against Colorado? Of course, Colorado has recently lost on the road to Dallas and SKC, so no kind of guarantee here. But this is an intriguing one that could solidify Colorado in a top-three position in the West or help Minnesota avoid falling out of the bottom of the playoffs. I like Djordje Mihailovic if you think Colorado takes this one, but you could go for Kelvin Yeboah and Robin Lod if you think Minnesota finally gets three points at home.
St. Louis v Kansas City - Coming off of an exhausting 120 minutes against LAFC, I think Kansas City folds in this one. They are one of the few teams who have the midweek match next week off, so I am not expecting rotation (they certainly need the points), but I still think St. Louis trounces them anyway. Marcel Hartel is the primary guy to own, Teuchert was “50/50” to play so probably avoid him, then Simon Becher at forward could be a big differential.

7:30 pm

Vancouver v Portland - Definitely the most impactful playoff matchup in the West, Vancouver and Portland are in positions seven and eight with a chance to move up. Portland would jump Vancouver with a win and, depending on the other match, potentially tie Seattle on points. Vancouver would move ahead of at least one of Seattle or Houston with a win, both in the case of a tie, and the potential to go all the way to fourth over LAFC if results all go Vancouver’s way. For our fantasy purposes, this match is a bit of a mystery, since Evander is suspended and Gauld played the full Canadian Championship and made his PK, but was apparently playing through a hamstring injury and is questionable for the weekend. Without Gauld, Vancouver has been hit or miss, largely depending on whether Brian White has a big game. Portland has had similar issues without Evander, though they do still have the talent to put away goals. Earlier this season Vancouver beat Portland 3-2 at home and lost 2-0 at Portland, but both games Gauld was captain and both games featured Evander. Unless Gauld is declared healthy, I’m staying away from this one due to the sheer unpredictability of Cascadia Cup matches. You could take Ranko Veselinovic and/or Brian White as late game alternates to the Sounders if you have no faith in them (or are capped on Sounders).
Seattle v Houston - At home once again, Seattle faces a surging Houston Dynamo, who have earned 17 points in their past eight matches, a stretch that includes wins over LAFC, Vancouver and RSL. Four of their wins in that span were on the road, even. Seattle will find it tough, but Houston will be missing possibly their most important player in Hector Herrera. With Herrera out Seattle should be able to control the game through midfield possession (at least one hopes) and prevent Houston from being comfortable with the ball. Their previous meeting this year in Houston, Latif Blessing scored two first-half goals before Rothrock and Ragen contributed goals in the second half for a 2-2 draw. For this match, Blessing and Ezequiel Ponce are both questionable and may not be fit to start. With a banged-up attack on the road and winnable midweek home match against New England, I expect Houston to play conservatively and not try and stretch the game. I think Albert Rusnák is a great play as usual at home, Jordan Morris is likely to do Jordan Morris things, and Jackson Ragen and Stefan Frei are very good bets in defense. However you like to line up depends on who you like.

Captain Considerations

Leo Messi - I know he didn’t perform like a superstar last week, but you’ve seen how he still plays. He is the top tier choice. The only reason to not pick him is if you are truly desperate for some kind of impactful differential.
Marcel Hartel - At home against a tired SKC? I am very intrigued.
Albert Rusnák - Last week against San Jose was a bit of a struggle, but he still had 10 KPs 4 crosses and was close to a passing bonus point. That’s become standard for him and he’ll put up excellent numbers when the finishers actually finish the chances he creates (or he gets ones of his own). With Houston missing key pieces, I think that leaves a hole in the midfield for Rusnak to exploit.
Luciano Acosta - At home against a tired LAFC that had to travel cross-country? I am also intrigued.

Almost done here! Good luck everyone!