Over the past 15 weeks, the Seattle Sounders have been among the best teams in MLS. In that time, they’ve gone 9-2-2 (2.23 points per game) with a +12 goal difference in league play. The only Western Conference team with more total points in that time is the LA Galaxy, and Inter Miami is the only team in MLS with a better points per game in that time.
While the Sounders can clinch a playoff spot with a win on Saturday over the Houston Dynamo, they still face a bit of an uphill battle to get into a top 4 spot in the Western Conference (which would mean home-field advantage in at least the first round of the playoffs).
Based on home and away form over each team’s last 11 games, the Sounders are projected to finish sixth in the table on 54 points, which would likely mean winning their final two home games and tying one of their two road games.
Of course, nothing is set in stone. Here’s a look at each of the teams competing with the Sounders for playoff positioning and where they might pick up and drop points:
Real Salt Lake (51 points)
Despite hitting a rough patch over the past two months, RSL remains in strong position to grab a top-two spot in the West thanks in large part to a very forgiving schedule. Their only two remaining road games are both against pretty bad opponents, starting with Saturday’s match at Austin FC.
Remaining games: at Austin FC, vs. Minnesota United, at San Jose Earthquakes, vs. Vancouver Whitecaps.
Outlook: Our projection has them claiming seven points in their last four games, which means there’s a potential loss somewhere in there. But if they beat Austin this weekend, they could cruise to the finish line.
Sounders’ rooting interest: While RSL is vaguely within distance of the Sounders, it’s probably best if they just win out. The Sounders will definitely want them to beat Minnesota United and the Whitecaps, though.
Colorado Rapids (50 points)
The Rapids have been one of the big surprises of 2024 and have been particularly hot of late, with three wins in their last four and a 9-3-1 record since June 15. They do have the toughest remaining schedule of all the teams the Sounders are competing with though, which includes three away games.
Remaining games: at Minnesota United, at LA Galaxy, vs. Sounders, at Austin FC.
Outlook: They are projected to finish on 57 points, which would mean two wins and a tie from their final four games. That feels a little optimistic as their weakest remaining opponent is Austin FC in the season finale on the road. That home game against the Sounders is going to be huge.
Sounders’ rooting interest: If the Rapids want to go ahead and lose out, that would work nicely. More seriously, if the Sounders can win their head-to-head matchup, there’s a solid chance they can jump the Rapids in the final standings.
LAFC (49 points)
In addition to having five regular-season games left on their schedule, LAFC also has the U.S. Open Cup final on Wednesday. That means they have no byes and two multi-game weeks. They’ve got the easiest remaining schedule in terms of opponent points per game, but they’ve already started showing some signs of wear and tear.
Remaining games: vs. Sporting KC (USOC), at FC Cincinnati, vs. St. Louis City, at Sporting KC, at Whitecaps, vs. Earthquakes.
Outlook: They're projected to finish on 58 points, which would require them to go 3-2-0 over their final five league games. That feels pretty doable, to be honest, but the key matches will be the away games against Sporting KC (who might be looking for revenge or walking dead) and the Whitecaps (who always seem to give them trouble at BC Place).
Sounders’ rooting interest: Honestly, I’m not sure Sounders fans should be as worried about where LAFC finish as much as be interested in being on the opposite side of the bracket. If they finish second or third, that’s probably ideal, so feel free to root for them with reckless abandon.
Houston Dynamo (48 points)
No one really seems to be talking about the Dynamo, who have sort of snuck their way into contention for home-field advantage in the first round. The Dynamo have lost just two of their last 16 league games and currently sit No. 5 in the West.
Remaining games: at Sounders, vs. New England Revolution, at St. Louis City, vs. LA Galaxy.
Outlook: Projected to finish on 54 points, that would require them to go 2-2-0. With two virtual gimmes left on their schedule, that actually might be a little conservative.
Sounders’ rooting interest: This upcoming match in Seattle is going to be huge. If the Sounders win that one, they control their destiny at least as far as the Dynamo are concerned. At that point, the Sounders wouldn’t need to be too focused on what the Dynamo are doing.
Sounders (47 points)
If it seemed like those two dropped points against the Earthquakes were going to be huge, this sort of puts things into focus. Instead of sitting tied with the Rapids in third and basically controlling their destiny as far as home-field advantage goes, they now will need some help.
Remaining games: vs. Dynamo, at Rapids, at Whitecaps, vs. Timbers.
Outlook: We project them finishing on 54 points, which would require them to go 2-1-1. That feels very realistic, but they’ll probably need to overshoot that if they’re to climb into a Top 4 spot.
Sounders’ rooting interest: Uh, win ’em all? But seriously, I think they need to claim at least eight points to improve their seeding from the current No. 6 spot. But if the table finishes where it is now, that might actually work OK.
Whitecaps (46 points)
There have been times this year when Vancouver seemed like one of the top teams in the West. There have been others when they’ve struggled just to get results (they won just 2 of 9 at one point). They’ve got the third toughest remaining schedule of this group —which doesn’t even include the Canadian Championship on Wednesday — but they only need to go on the road once.
Remaining games: vs. Toronto FC (Canadian Championship), vs. Timbers, vs. Sounders, vs. Minnesota United, vs. LAFC, at RSL.
Outlook: The projection has them with 55 points, which would mean they go 3-2-0. Even though they have a ton of home games, every game has some mitigating circumstances that will complicate things.
Sounders’ rooting interest: Aside from the obvious head-to-head result we want, I think the Sounders probably want a tie in the Timbers game as that doesn’t cause any huge problems for the standings and leaves the Cascadia Cup wide open. We probably want them to just lose the rest.
Timbers (44 points)
The Timbers offense has been quite amazing. They have three players who have already scored 14 goals and a bonafide MVP candidate in Evander. The rub is that they can’t really defend. As things stand now, they are likely to become the first team in MLS history to score at least 70 goals but fail to finish top 4 in their conference. In fact, of the nine previous teams to score at least that many goals, only two failed to finish first in their conference.
Remaining games: at Whitecaps, vs. Austin FC, vs. FC Dallas, at Sounders.
Outlook: The projection has them on 50 points, which means they go 2-2-0. But the likely scenario in that one would see them coming to Seattle on 50 points, with the Sounders just one point ahead. That’s going to be a big game.
Sounders’ rooting interest: We can root for them to tie the Whitecaps, but going 0-3-1 would suit us just fine, thank you very much.
