MLS Fantasy Week 29: Not the last week, but almost

Hey folks, glad you're still with us! Just two weeks left in MLS Fantasy, and this one is a doozy. It's a full Double Game Week and will likely be the most determinative week in the final standings, especially for those within striking distance of a placement. There are a bunch of double-home and double-away schedules this week.

Those latter schedules should give you some caution, especially for teams with long travel distances, given the risk of rotation midweek as teams prep for the playoffs. Miami just needs a few points to win the Supporter's Shield, and the Crew and Cincy are essentially locked into first-round home field advantage. Things are tighter in the West, but the nine playoff squads are essentially determined at this point. Still, Portland and Minnesota will push to get out of the play-in game while everyone will do their best to secure home field advantage as far as they can. I'm on a bit of a deadline so I'll keep this one short. It'll be a fun and tricky week – good luck everyone!

Quick Rankings

GK - Kristijan Khalina, Matt Freese, Steve Clark (Maxime Crepeau (??))

DEF - Tim Ream (Adilson Malanda), Kai Wagner, Thiago Martins, Erik Sviachenko, Maya Yoshida, Brandon Bye, Jackson Ragen

MID - Evander, Lucho Acosta/Luca Orellano, Riqui Puig, Djordje Mihailovic, Facundo Torres, Saba Lobzhanidze/Aleksei Miranchuk, Santi Rodriguez, Carles Gil, Albert Rusnak, Ryan Gauld (Questionable)

FWD - Leo Messi, Cucho Hernandez, Gabriel Pec, Denis Bouanga, Christian Benteke, Kelvin Yeboah, Jonathan Rodriguez, Brian White

Week 29 schedule

Atlanta - vs MTL, vs NYRB. One of our double home-week teams. Atlanta is actually behind Montreal on points, but the Red Bulls are fading fast, losing to NYCFC last week 5-1 (!). Atlanta likely needs to win out to make the playoffs, but it could get interesting. Take your pick of Saba Lobzhanidze or Aleksei Miranchuk – they both have similar scores over the last six games, each with two goals and 9/7 BPs, respectively. Their defense has been suspect, but a bold pick going with Guzan/Lennon could be a home run differential (note that Lennon is on YCW, though).
Austin - at POR, at LAG. Stay farrrr away. Jader Obrian and Osmane Bukari have had some success recently, but I'm not picking from a bad team eliminated from the playoffs on two road games.
Montreal - at ATL, at CLT. The addition of Caden Clark and the resurrection of Josef Martinez have been responsible for Montreal's climb into relevance after their putrid start to the year. They have 10 points in their last four, and Martinez returning to Atlanta could be a sneaky pick this week. I don't really believe they can do it, but I'll be paying close attention.
Charlotte - vs CHI, vs MTL. On the flip side, Charlotte has two seemingly friendly home matchups against teams outside the playoffs (although Montreal is only a tiebreaker outside). Chicago is effectively eliminated and have not been good lately, but can score a goal here or there. Charlotte still has one of the better defenses in the league, even if they haven't always shown it lately, so Kristijan Khalina and Tim Ream are solid picks, plus Adilson Malanda if you are feeling like going for a triple stack.
Chicago - at CLT. Single game week, useful for picking a scrub absent in game 1 so you know the spot is DNP, but that's about it.
Colorado - vs LAG, vs SEA. Two very tough playoff opponents, Colorado will have to put up or shut up if they are going to host any playoff games. Colorado could end the week as high as 2nd in the West or as low as 8th. Djordje Mihailovic has had alternating great and poor games lately, with the good games at home. The Galaxy struggled against Evander on the road, so I expect Mihailovic will do great in that match at least. With Bassett and Cabral out and Navarro on YCW, I can't recommend any other attackers here. Colorado has allowed the third-fewest goals at home in the West, so their defense is an option, but one I'd shy away from given the Galaxy's attack and Seattle's strength lately.
Columbus - vs MIA, vs PHI. Two very tough opponents, especially with Philly's resurgence. Columbus attackers should find plenty of room, so I'm happily taking Cucho Hernandez as a potential captain. It could be a Rossi week as well, but I'm going with the surer bet here. I am staying away from Columbus defenders given the opponents and Nancy's willingness to rotate the defense lately.
D.C. - at NSH, at NER. Well now, Christian Benteke had himself a brace against Columbus and is facing two marginal defenses, albeit on the road. Benteke started the year with a hat trick against New England in D.C., and he had an assist against Nashville in Week 21. I think he's a top-5 pick this week and might even be a good captain option given his form (7 goals, 2 assists in his past 7 games), except that he's on YCW so could drop a zero on Saturday.
Cincinatti - at NYC, vs ORL. Lucho Acosta and Luca Orellano both impressed last week, with Orellano especially showing that he's worthy of sharing the spotlight. Orellano has outscored Acosta since Acosta has returned and might be worth picking over the former MVP. He hasn't been on the same form season-long, though, so maybe just stick with Acosta, assuming you want one of the best players in fantasy this year? I don't think these are good defensive matchups though.
Dallas - at SJE, at POR. No thank you.
Houston - vs NER, at STL. These are okay matches for the defense, given that both opponents are eliminated from the playoffs and Houston has had one of the best defenses in the league. However, keep in mind that Dorsey is suspended for Wednesday and Micael is on YCW. If you want a defender here, you probably want Erik Sviatchenko (and Steve Clark, of course). Hector Herrera and Ezequiel Ponce could return this week, but I'm staying away from the attack, as we don't know how healthy they are or how many minutes they'll get.
Miami - at CLB, at TOR. With Jordi Alba and Luis Suarez on YCW, plus two away matches, I am staying away from everyone here besides Leo Messi. It will be an all-star match in Columbus as Miami try to firmly secure the Supporter's Shield, while a loss there would set up a furious final few weeks as Columbus tries to mount a late push. If Miami does win, Messi could sit against Toronto, but I still think he'll travel and get some minutes. He's simply too explosive to be left off of your rosters, even though he disappointed in the last DGW.
LA Galaxy - at COL, vs ATX. Yes please. Playing in Colorado will be tough, but the game against Austin should be a fun one. I am taking Riqui Puig shares and am strongly considering Gabriel Pec for my third forward slot. I also think Galaxy defenders could be a sneaky good pick this week, as I think a shutout against Austin is reasonably likely. Joseph Paintsil has been incredible in both their last DGWs (and very poor outside of those four games) so could be an intriguing pick, especially with Reus out at least Wednesday.
LAFC - vs STL, at SKC. Another very good set of games for LAFC against two teams eliminated from the playoffs. LAFC needs results, too, as their recent form is putting them at risk of missing out on home field advantage. They beat Cincy on the road to get back to second in the West, and have a game in hand, but Vancouver in 7th is still just five points behind them. Denis Bouanga came off the bench at half and scored against Cincy, combining with Giroud, so I think he's rested and goes 90/90. Bogusz and Giroud are options but have not been consistent lately, and I'm not sure I trust any defender outside of Hugo Lloris to go 90/90.
Minnesota - at RSL, at VAN. Although they have two away games, Kelvin Yeboah has been one of the hottest strikers in the league, with seven goals in his last six games for Minnesota. Three of them have been penalties, but he is earning his keep as a huge upgrade on Minnesota's rotating cast of center forwards. This tough schedule and I'm not 100% sold on him over one of Bouanga/Messi/Cucho/Benteke/Pec, but it is an intriguing option.
Nashville - vs DCU, at NYC. I thought they might get it done in New England but they went back to looking like the 13th-best team in the East. They could technically still make the playoffs, but it would require a lot of things to break their way. I am staying away given their inconsistency (and yes, Mukhtar did burn me last week, why do you ask?).
New England - at HOU, vs DCU. Intriguing squad with Brandon Bye, probably their best defender, finally healthy after missing most of the year, then coming back and getting reinjured. A goal and a clean sheet for him last week. If Houston doesn't have Herrera and Ponce healthy and Benteke takes Saturday off (either through YCA or just because it's one of his bad weeks), New England could have their sixth/seventh clean sheets on the year. Perhaps not likely, but an interesting thing to speculate about. Carles Gil is a reasonable pick however it shakes out, not one of my top tier options this week though.
New York City - vs CIN, vs NSH. This seems like a great schedule for them. Santi Rodriguez sat last week on YCA so should be good to go both games. And even without him, they still put up 5 on NYRB. I don't know if they score that many goals this week, even with two games, but it's possible. If you like Santi, you also have to like the guy actually doing the scoring, Alonso Martinez. Six goals in his last six games, if you liked Yeboah for his form you gotta also consider Martinez playing at home. Is he a top three option? Maybe? His minutes concern me but he's still scoring anyway. If you want a defender here go with Thiago Martins, since Tayvon Gray isn't starting today. Maybe Matt Freese too?
New York Red Bulls - at TOR, at ATL. Forsberg made his return against NYCFC and is off the injury report, so maybe he gets this team going again. I am not going to bet on it with two big conference road games.
Orlando - vs PHI, at CIN. Orlando is at the top of the 4-7 playoff grouping in the East, 10 points behind Cincy with Charlotte at the bottom of that group five points ahead of Toronto. Orlando can't catch Cincy with three games remaining, but could easily fall back to seventh if they don't keep up their form. Philly desperately needs the points though, so Wednesday will be a tough game. I don't like their defense, especially with Thorhallsson injured, but Facundo Torres has been a reliable option lately with five goals and an assist in his past five games (and at least one in each). He's just outside of my top five choices, though, just based on personal preference.
Philadelphia - at ORL, at CLB. Two road games is rough, and I'm not really excited about Baribo, Gazdag, or Sullivan here, but Kai Wagner continues to impress. He's the highest point scorer on Philadelphia and top-20 in the league (at any position). I am doubtful he gets a CS in one of these games, but his attacking contributions are crucial for Philly and good for our fantasy teams.
Portland - vs ATX, vs DAL. Two great games against Texas squads, Evander simply has to be in your team, Jonathan Rodriguez has crept into the golden boot race with 16 goals of his own (still five back of Benteke). Santiago Moreno has had some good weeks (and bad ones) recently, so could be a consideration, and Portland's defense could have some success this week if you need a late option and don't want Vancouver or Seattle.
Salt Lake - vs MIN, at SJE. RSL have allowed 11 goals in their past four games. They will have to tighten that up significantly if they are to stay top-3 in the West. Their offense is kind of all over the place right now, so it is tough to recommend anyone there. I expect one of them will go off, but it could be any of Arango, Crooks, Julio or Luna... or possibly Goncalves (but he hasn't been starting) or Marczuk? Who knows! I don't.
San Jose - vs DAL, vs RSL. Wooden Spoon secured, I am not picking anyone from San Jose, even though their matchups are actually not bad at all. If anyone, it would be Espinoza, but he has certainly disappointed me before and I am looking for more consistency.
Seattle - at VAN, at COL. Not the best matchups for Seattle. I think (hope) they get at least four points here with a clean sheet and a few goals, but that may just be the homer in me. I think Albert Rusnák will find some success even though he's been less consistent lately (I think he's been playing well just a little unlucky the goals haven't come through him) and I think this defense is still top 3 in the league and can shut out anyone. It is tough to place your bets here for fantasy, though.
Kansas City - vs LAFC. Pick up Kayden Pierre for a late defensive scrub – he's been transferred out of the league. Then if something crazy happens Wednesday like two of your bench players getting injured or getting red cards, you could at the least sub in an SKC defender for a few points.
St. Louis - at LAFC, vs HOU. Cedric Teuchert went from Questionable to Incredible on Saturday with 13 points from a goal and two assists. Loewen was great, too. Unfortunate for my fantasy team that it wasn't Hartel who was running over SKC. STL is eliminated from the playoffs, despite wins in their past two games, so I am not sure how seriously they take these matches. Plus, LAFC and Houston have two of the better defenses in the West. I am skipping the options here.
Toronto - vs NYRB, vs MIA. Two home games is nice, one win in their past five is less nice. Miami could send a full B-squad on Saturday if they lock up the Supporter's Shield tonight, but I wouldn't bank on that. Toronto does need points to stay in a playoff spot, but I am not confident they can stay there and am skipping them this week.
Vancouver - vs SEA, vs MIN. Two big playoff matchups against teams three points ahead and two points behind them. A lot will depend on whether Gauld (and, to an extent, Ahmed) is healthy tonight. With a healthy Gauld, they can go toe-to-toe with Seattle. Without him, I fear they will not be able to break through the defense in a tense Cascadia Cup match. Minnesota should be easier to break down and Gauld should be healthier by then, but I am not sure who is a good option from Vancouver here. Brian White had a good outing last week in Gauld's absence, and Vancouver's defense has had some strong outings, but Seattle and Minnesota have both been quite good recently. I'd almost rather take Portland defenders this week? Weird to say.

Captain considerations

Leo Messi - The highest ceiling choice, but also one of the riskiest. It is not a given that he plays in or even travels to Toronto, so picking someone else who's more dependable may be preferable.
Evander - Two home games against weak teams with the chance to eliminate them from the playoffs? A week of (forced) rest last week? Things are setting up nicely for probably the best player in fantasy this year.
Cucho Hernandez - Ultra consistent lately even without starting every match. In his past three games he has one goal and one assist in each of them, even though he only played 45 minutes in two of them. Miami and Philly at home are two very good matchups and should prove a huge test for Columbus ahead of the playoffs. I like their star in these ones.
Riqui Puig/Gabriel Pec - Puig has been absurd lately, scoring double-digit points in every game he's played since Week 22. He also dropped 20 on LAFC in Week 26. Pec meanwhile has played 90 minutes in every match going back to Week 18 and played 89/89 in the two previous games, with 16 goal contributions in those 14 games. He had himself two double-digit games in Week 27, outscoring Puig in each of them, and could have more in store.