Postgame Pontifications: Playoff wins all count the same

SEATTLE — One of the knock-on effects of the best-of-3 playoff format that MLS is using for a second straight season is that each game becomes a winner-take-all affair. With no aggregate scoring, the only thing that matters is who claims two wins first. It makes literally no difference if those wins are 5-0 or via shootout, they count exactly the same.

In the aftermath of the Seattle Sounders’ shootout win over the Houston Dynamo in Game 1 of their first-round matchup, there’s been some understandable rumbling about how unconvincing it was.

MLS Season Pass commentator Andrew Wiebe gave prominent voice to this idea when he said “I didn’t see enough from the Sounders in this game to convince me they’re at the very top of the Cup contenders.”

The main complaint seems to be that the Sounders didn’t create enough chances in this game — and more broadly haven’t been a particularly powerful offense this season — to put themselves in that echelon.

And to be honest, that’s a fair enough assessment. Despite playing with a man advantage for more than 40 minutes – including stoppage time – the Sounders could not break through the Dynamo’s defense. The Sounders managed to fire off 19 shots, but seven of those were blocked and only two forced a save. Only one of those shots generated an xG value of more than .10 and the accumulated value of all those shots was just 1.0. It was not a particularly impressive offensive performance, even if a rewatch of the match shows that they had at least a few decent looks.

If the Sounders had lost in the shootout, there would be ample reason to be freaking out. Of course, they didn’t.

In fact, the Sounders put on a finishing clinic in the shootout. Raúl Ruidíaz opened the proceedings with an absolutely stone-cold Panenka. The finish was made all the more impressive when you consider that Ruidíaz now has a reputation for using that technique, Dynamo goalkeeper Steve Clark was studying notes which surely clued him in, and it worked anyway. When Clark gave a somewhat sarcastic thumbs up after the conversion, Ruidíaz just shrugged as if to say “yeah, and I’ll do it again.”

From there, it was more conventional, albeit even more unstoppable shots. Albert Rusnák smashed his attempt just inside the right post despite Clark guessing correctly; Jackson Ragen roofed his attempt; Cristian Roldan, just after the Dynamo finally missed, put his attempt top bins; and then Alex Roldan closed it out with another perfectly taken penalty. FotMob rated the xGOT value on those last three attempts as .99, .99 and .98, respectively. It was as close to penalty perfection as you’ll ever see.

Penalties are, effectively, a crap shoot. I’m not sure one team ever has a significant advantage over the other, but the Sounders have been training for these a lot more this year than most after long runs in both the U.S. Open Cup and Leagues Cup. They also had three players who had taken in-game penalties this year, while Ezequiel Ponce was only the Dynamo player who has taken one in recent years.

I’m sure the Sounders aren’t exactly embracing the possibility of another game going to penalties, but a performance like this certainly doesn’t hurt.

“Having our guys step up gives me confidence,” Sounders goalkeeper Stefan Frei said. “If we go into it again, it makes me feel half-an-inch taller.”

More than any vague sense of confidence, though, there’s a very real benefit of now being one win away from advancement. A year ago when this format was first unveiled, all eight teams who won Game 1 advanced. This year, the Sounders were one of six home teams to get that advantage, which also illustrated how nothing should be taken for granted.

This is not an aggregate-goal series where there’s a material benefit to running up the score. Ugly or not, the Sounders now have the benefit of being able to critique their performance constructively without any need to finger-point or panic.

“I’m a firm believer when things are going well and you can find results, that’s the time to be excited with the result but also a bit critical and hopefully people are a bit more receptive to that criticism,” Frei said. “When you look at it that way, it’s a perfect game for us.”

It should also not be lost that this was another outstanding defensive performance. While the Dynamo had 55% of possession in the first half, two thirds of that was in their own end and it only resulted in two shots. After they went down a man, the Dynamo got even more conservative, only attempted 40 passes in the Sounders’ end and only even touched the ball inside the attacking penalty area six times.

In a season where the Sounders allowed the fewest goals in the league, they’ve now allowed just one goal in their past five games and only allowed seven shots on frame during that time. During their eight-game unbeaten streak, they’ve outscored opponents 14-3 and posted six shutouts. The pressure is now squarely on the Dynamo to break through.

A big reason why the Sounders struggled to get many dangerous looks is because the Dynamo were clearly content to put all their players behind the ball and play for penalties. In that sense, their strategy backfired and they're now going to be playing at home with the ghost of elimination sitting on their shoulder. They probably can’t afford to take a similar approach in that game.

“Right now it doesn’t matter how we played,” Sounders head coach Brian Schmetzer said. “We are in control. We won. That’s the biggest takeaway for me.”