Paul Rothrock not being an adequate third-best attacker. That claim was made in the last Ship's Log, just before Seattle won two games in a row, powered by Paul Rothrock.
My dude Paulie is balling out. Yes, that was a major theme of Jeremiah's latest Postgame Pontifications, but it's also relevant as the rush to the playoffs happens. Rothrock has 7 pure (no secondary assists) goal contributions, right around the 100th best in the league. That may not seem like a lot, but considering he didn't play for the first third of the year, it's good.
Is it good enough?
Yes, but not just because he's nearly as productive as the league's best team's third best players.
Let's compare his likely season totals (8-10) to the third-best attacker on the past few title contenders (Shield winners, MLS Cup winners, MLS Cup finalists).
2023 - Crew with Christian Ramirez at 11 (tied for 35th), LAFC with Bogusz at 6 (tied for 100th), Cincinnati with Vasquez at 10 (tied for 48th)
2022 - LAFC with Cifuentes at 13 (tied for 37th), Philly with Uhre at 16 (tied 20th)
2021 - NYCFC with Median at 11 (tied 45th), Portland with Y. Chara at 11 (45th), New England with Gil at 15 (tied 20th)
And Seattle's best two teams (2014, 2019) with their third best attacker?
In 2019 the third best attacker for the Sounders was Raúl Ruidíaz, who had 13 goal contributions, good for 34th in the league (he was tied with Albert Rusnák). In 2014 Lamar Neagle was the third cog in the offense, with 16 pure goal contributions and tied for 19th in the league.
Does Rothrock, even best case, compare to those kind of numbers? Absolutely not. So what makes me think that I was wrong?
The ways he propels the offense that don't show up as goals or assists. No, not secondary assists. A fun little stat/situation called Goal Creating Actions (Fouled).
Paul Rothrock has created four Sounders goals by being fouled. You saw it in the strong win over Vancouver. Paul breaks opponents' brains. They foul him in bad, unnecessary spots and then the Seattle Sounders score.
Dave, sure. But it's just four goals. That's not a lot.
And, you'd be wrong. It's more than 10 teams have created in total from being fouled. It's tied for second in the league, and only Denis Bouanga has more (with five). By the way, Jordan Morris is tied for fourth in the league with three GCA(F).
To put Seattle's ability to frustrate opponents via speed and savvy into perspective, only five non-Sounders teams have more GCA(F) than Paul and Jordan combined. No team has more than Seattle's 12.
Is Paul Rothrock a good enough third-cog for a championship? Yes, because he contributes about a 50% more goals than show up in his boxscore contributions.
He's freakishly good at understanding space and time. And I was wrong.
A list of other things I was wrong about
1 - The early season woes were a sign of late season regrets. Instead, the team is on the verge of qualifying for the Concacaf Champions Cup in the same year it is already in the Club World Cup.
2 - Seattle's bad at set pieces. Only six teams have more Goal Creating Actions from dead ball passes than the Sounders. One of those is Colorado with 8 to Seattle's 7. But Miami only has 9 and they're in fifth. No one would suggest that a team with Messi and Suarez is bad at dead ball action.
3 - Nouhou should stop going forward. Against Vancouver his surges into the attack were among the best he's ever done. He works well with Paul. No, he didn't work well with Jordan or Leo or Pedro or basically anyone else for a couple years. He looks good with Paulie. They vibe.
4 - Not being excited for matchday. It took a long time to get over that slow start. But this team is fun right now. They've got funk, spunk and a belief in themselves that rivals the best of Seattle Sounder soccer. They're not a dark horse for a playoff run. They are a team on a run right now and there are only two teams that can stop it (LAFC, Miami). Let's enjoy the late season joy, because the long dark is approaching.
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Catching up on Sounder at Heart
Here's what you missed on the site this week.
Sounders
Next match: Saturday at Colorado Rapids at 6:30 pm PT on MLS Season Pass. Rapids are 10-3-3 at home and can leapfrog the Sounders with a win, despite being only 6th to Seattle's 3rd entering the matchday. Schmetzer's side can vault to second with a win and a SKC win over LAFC.
- Postgame Pontifications: New energy, new heights
- Crushing the Canucks: Win puts Sounders in third
- Nos Audietis: Home-field advantage suddenly in sight
- Realio’s Ratings: Shutout D is back
- Obed Vargas on Mexico call-up: ‘I feel like I completed my career’
- Obed Vargas receives first Mexican national team call-up
- Nos Audietis: This kind of win was exactly what Sounders needed
- Lobbing Scorchers: Paul Rothrock owns the Houston Dynamo
- Postgame Pontifications: Exactly what they needed
- Grinding one out: Sounders top Dynamo, clinch playoff spot
- Everything we know about the Club World Cup
- Seattle will host three Club World Cup games next summer
- How Sounders transformed tactics halfway through season
Reign
Next match: Friday hosting Angel City FC at Lumen Field. The 7 pm PT match is on Prime Video. Angel City just got docked three points for salary cap violations. Seattle keeps their slim playoff hopes alive with a win.
- Seattle Reign vs. Angel City: Gamethread
- The Cooler Guild: Playoff hopes dwindling
- Seattle Reign, Bay FC, and another frustrating 1 goal loss
Defiance
Next match: Sunday at St. Louis FC 2 at 1 pm PT in the final match of the regular season. Defiance can win the division, and second pick for playoff opponents, with a win at St. Louis and a The Town FC loss at Austin, otherwise Tacoma will not be unlikely to finish high enough to pick an opponent.
Spokane
Zephyr host Dallas Trinity Sunday at 2 pm PT on Peacock+.
Velocity are at Central Valley Fuego Wednesday at 7 pm PT on ESPN+
Looking back at the news
Everything else you need to know
Are Jordan Morris and Crisitan Roldan players that belong in the USMNT picture again? Probably not, but one statistician has them as the 20th and 23rd best US eligible players in the world right now. Jackson Ragen is 45th. Talk to me in twenty months and if Jordan's still scoring like this he may wind up as a benchie for a World Cup again.
Next week's international break will see Nouhou with Cameroon, Obed Vargas with Mexico, Stuart Hawkins with the US U-19s and Reed Baker-Whiting with the US U-20s.
Washington Legends are throwing a Cliff McGrath party. He's an extraordinary character from the region's glorious soccer past. It's going to be a great party.
There are moves afoot in the realm of player rights and movement. Next year there will be an "exceptional" transfer window for the men who are free agents in the summer, enabling them to move to teams competing in the Club World Cup – like Seattle Sounders. Also, the ability to escape clubs in poor situations may become easier thanks to a recent EU ruling, which suggests that a player breaking contract to sign with a new club after a contract dispute can do so if they and the new team play the losing club a few.
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