Sounder Strategy: Rapids are plunging

The MLS playoffs are all about peaking at the right time. The Seattle Sounders’ trophy case is heavy with the silverware of squads that got hot when it mattered most, often following or amid lack-luster regular-seasons. Having gone a league-best 11-2-2 in their last 15 and winning four of their last five, including a convincing 3-0 win on Wednesday, they might be poised to do it again. Their penultimate regular season foe is the Colorado Rapids, whose form is heading in the opposite direction with three losses in four. Let’s look at why the Sounders keep improving, and how they can take down a faltering opponent.

Sussing out Seattle

The Sounders have not been perfect down the stretch by any means. Even against Vancouver mid-week, defensive lapses while up a goal threatened to turn the match. The concept of a “trap game” is debatable in a league with the parity of MLS, but the Sounders seem to be vulnerable to low-energy atmospheres this season. Two weeks ago, facing the hapless San Jose Earthquakes with a sparse home crowd and tired legs, Seattle’s lack of focus gave us sequences like this that are best set to a soundtrack of Yakety Sax:

The good news is that there are no more trap games on the schedule. Seattle will be facing playoff-caliber opponents and likely ampted up atmospheres until their season ends. Tired legs will still be a factor, but focus should no longer be an issue.

The season winding down unfortunately also means that a potential breakout for Pedro de la Vega is running low on time. The knock on de la Vega has always been his decision-making in the final third. On sequences like this one, Pedro’s gravity draws four defenders to his immediate vicinity, but his tunnel vision lets him down and he misses the opening for a slipped pass to Rothrock:

It is looking more and more like his breakout will have to wait until next season. More than anything, Pepo appears to be trying too hard to make up for lost time with poorly-selected shots, trying to play the role of the hero rather than a member of the team’s supporting cast:

Luckily for the Sounders, they are looking less and less like a squad that needs Pedro’s heroics to beat their Western Conference opponents. Instead, de la Vega can focus on being just one of three effective winger options in the Sounders’ arsenal.

It has been an awfully long time since Seattle could consistently boast danger on both wings at the same time. Jordan Morris has been Best XI caliber on the wing but always played the position as a wide forward looking to get into the box. Cristian Roldan’s wing role was to control possession from the right half-space, relying on an overlapping fullback for width. Léo Chú had his breakout last season, but opposing defenses figured out his one trick by the end of the year and his productivity fizzled. But times are changing. The Sounders have true wingers on both flanks that opposing defenses don’t know how to handle.

On the left wing, 5-foot, 8-inch Paul Rothrock should have no business winning a hopeful long ball against 6-foot tall Griffin Dorsey, who has a better angle to judge this pass and intervene:

But Rothrock reacts quicker, uses his strength to box out Dorsey and beats him for a free cross to Morris. Plays like this have made Rothrock indispensable. His instincts and decisiveness are first rate.

On the right side, Georgi Minoungou had Whitecaps defenders on skates all night long:

If Minoungou is to stay one step ahead, he will need to diversify his repertoire. That will include driving directly at the keeper at times and improving his passing. Nevertheless, his early returns are exciting. While his dribbling skill was well advertised when he signed with the first team, his strength and balance when winning 50-50 balls or holding off a defender on his back are a pleasant surprise.

In Rothrock, Minoungou, and de la Vega, the Sounders have three wingers capable of holding possession when isolated and regularly beating defenders on the dribble while spreading the field wide without the need for an overlapping fullback. The Sounders have been pining for something, anything resembling productivity from their wingers. Clubs like LAFC have overwhelmed Morris with fast, physical centerbacks and dared Seattle to beat them from wide areas. While the Sounders do not have the top wing talent of a club like the Galaxy, they might have just enough to turn the tide against their most challenging opponents.

Scouting Colorado

The bulk of Colorado’s goals come from their attacking spine: central midfielder Cole Basset, central attacker Djordje Mihailovic, and striker Rafael Navarro. Basset is out with an injury, and his absence hurts Colorado’s ability to generate chances from the middle of the pitch. On this sequence against the Galaxy midweek, the Rapids turned over Riqui Puig in the final third for what should have been a dangerous opportunity:

Instead, the opportunity vanished as the Rapids lingered too long centrally until the Galaxy recovered and forced them to play backward. Colorado want to play on the front foot at home, earning similar turnovers and putting teams under sustained pressure. Despite being an average possession team, the Rapids take the second fewest touches in their own defensive third. They also take the fourth most touches in the attacking third, up with the likes of the Houston Dynamo and Columbus Crew. Even the Galaxy, who crave possession as much as any in MLS, were forced into long defensive sequences in the first half of Wednesday’s match in Colorado.

On the defensive end, the departure of star defender Moïse Bombito in August left a difficult void to fill. The Rapids are having to lean more on the experience of veteran goalkeeper Zach Steffen. Despite receiving a fresh call-up to the USMNT, Steffen is not having a good run according to the underlying metrics. By post-shot expected goal difference, only the hapless and injured goalkeeper group in San Jose has had a worse season of shot-stopping. Steffen’s most unique characteristic is that he plays a sweeper role as often as any goalkeeper in MLS. He has recorded 68 defensive actions outside the penalty area this season. For reference, Stefan Frei has recorded only 54 in his last four seasons combined and just 9 this year.

Keys to victory against Colorado

Escape Colorado’s press with the diagonal passes

The Rapids sold out to prevent the Galaxy from building out of the back through star Riqui Puig. This meant pushing numbers up the field and clogging the middle of the pitch to deny him passing lanes. To break this pressure, LA used one-touch diagonal passes from their fullbacks to their wingers dropping into the midfield, as on this play:

If Colorado try a similar tactic to deny space for Cristian Roldan and Albert Rusnak, the Sounders will need Rothrock and Minoungou to be active dropping back to receive passes and helping Alex Roldan break Colorado’s initial line of pressure.

Toe-to-toe on set pieces

After months of futility, the Sounders have turned their attacking set pieces into a legitimate strength. For Colorado, Mihailovic’s deft delivery has pushed the Rapids to a league-leading 15 goals from set pieces. With 9 more of their goals taken from the penalty spot, Colorado may not be the most dangerous team from open play, but they are among the most practical.

This match may very well turn into a set-piece showdown between gunslingers Mihailovic and Rusnák, with Jackson Ragen and Yeimar battling in the box with the Rapids’ Lalas Abubakar.

Manage long balls

As we have seen far too many times against LAFC this year, Seattle is often at their most vulnerable when the opposition plays direct. Fast, physical forwards running in space put Ragen at a disadvantage. In this sequence, Brian White out-maneuvers Ragen to win a routine long ball from Takaoka, leading to a 3-on-2 opportunity:

The Sounders will have to be wary of allowing too much space behind their back line. Even if the Rapids cannot break down Seattle’s defense with long possession sequences, launched balls from Steffen in Denver’s mile-high atmosphere toward forward Rafael Navarro pose plenty of danger.

Statistics in this article were sourced from FBref.com, Opta Analyst, and American Soccer Analysis.