This is how the MLS award voting is probably going to go

The MLS end-of-season award finalists were released on Thursday and the winners are expected to be announced as soon as next week. Once again, I was allowed the privilege to vote.

I figured now is a good opportunity to share my ballot, explain my thinking and give my best estimation of who I think will win. As a reminder, the finalists are just the top vote-getters, not a short list to select from. There are three blocs of voters that each account for one-third of the vote: select media, club technical staff and first-team players.

Landon Donovan MVP

The finalists: Christian Benteke (D.C. United); Evander (Portland Timbers); Cucho Hernández (Columbus Crew); Lionel Messi (Inter Miami CF); Luis Suárez (Inter Miami CF).

My vote: I originally had Cucho Hernández but decided to wait until Decision Day to make my final choice. After Messi scored a hat trick and had an assist in just one half of play to help lead Miami to the points record, I felt like I had to change my vote. Sure, he played less than 1,500 minutes, but he still managed to lead the league in goal contributions (31). I understand that Miami was just about as good without him as they were with him, but come on, he’s the best player in the league, on the best team in the league. Let’s not overcomplicate this.

How it will go: Messi was going to win even before his Decision Day masterclass. I’m sure there will be some dissenting opinions, but I won’t be at all surprised if this is the biggest landslide in league history.

Sigi Schmid Coach of the Year

Finalists: Chris Armas (Colorado Rapids); Gerardo ‘Tata’ Martino (Inter Miami CF); Wilfried Nancy (Columbus Crew)

My vote: I voted for Martino and was planning to vote for him regardless of the points record, but that definitely made it easier. I know it’s tempting to say “well, he had the most talented roster, of course he won.” But I think that undersells the challenge. Like I said earlier, Messi only played like half of the available minutes and Miami didn’t miss a beat when he was out. A lot of that is on Martino. I will say I was tempted to vote for Brian Schmetzer, though. It’s a little bit of a career achievement award, but I genuinely believe this was his best coaching job of his nine seasons in charge.

How it will go: Martino is going to win in a landslide. I get why Nancy is on here and I suppose the Rapids’ were the biggest overachievers, but this is an easy choice.

Impact Award

Finalists: Andrew Farrell (New England Revolution); Darlington Nagbe (Columbus Crew); Ilie Sánchez (LAFC).

My vote: Jordan Morris. Maybe it’s a homer pick, but I see the work he does for his foundation and know this is not just some box he checks. I’m sure the others are deserving, too.

How it will go: Nagbe? I really have no idea and think this award might be better off not being up to a vote.

Comeback Player of the Year

Finalists: Robin Lod (Minnesota United FC); Maxi Moralez (New York City FC); Lewis Morgan (New York Red Bulls)

My vote: Morgan. He had an outstanding season after missing most of last season. That’s how this award should work.

How it will go: This one is pretty much wide open, but I will go ahead and guess that Morgan will win. Moralez has the best comeback story and Lod was probably better than you realize (7 goals, 13 assists), but Morgan’s 13 goals and 5 assists are too hard to ignore.

Defender of the Year

Finalists: Jordi Alba (Inter Miami CF); Steven Moreira (Columbus Crew); Jackson Ragen (Seattle Sounders FC).

My vote: Yeimar Gomez Andrade was, for me, the best and most important defender on the best defense. There aren’t a lot of stats to offer as evidence — aside from interceptions, where he’s one of the league’s best — but this is admittedly a bit more of a vibe test.

How it will go: My initial and maybe cynical thought is that Alba’s going to win because he’s the most famous finalist. But Moreira is the guy who most of the national pundits seem to be picking and he is a very important defender on one of the top teams. Maybe this is a bit galaxy-brained, but I think Ragen may actually win. Here’s my thinking: I suspect Alba will win the media vote and Moreira will just barely win the club vote. Maybe Ragen will be the player vote, in much the same way that Aaron Long won a few years ago, and sneak in. This award is almost always won by centerbacks and he’s the only one of this group who actually defends, so maybe?

Goalkeeper of the Year

Finalists: Kristijan Kahlina (Charlotte FC); Hugo Lloris (LAFC); Patrick Schulte (Columbus Crew)

My vote: I’m a big believer in post-shot xG and Kahlina was by a rather significant margin the best keeper. He also was tied for the league lead in shutouts. Honestly, a pretty easy choie.

How it will go: My cynical brain says it will be Lloris, just because he’s the most famous goalkeeper in the group and this vote often defies logic. If that’s the case, I’m going to be pretty annoyed because I think Stefan Frei had a better season and he deserves to win this award at some point. Frei had a better save percentage, goals-against average and shutout percentage than Lloris, while being only marginally worse on psxg. I really hope Kahlina wins, though.

Newcomer of the Year

Finalists: Luca Orellano (FC Cincinnati); Gabriel Pec (LA Galaxy); Luis Suárez (Inter Miami CF)

My vote: I was frankly blown away at how good Pec was this year, finishing with 16 goals and 12 primary assists and playing more than 2,700 minutes. It might be the best debut season by a Young DP in MLS history.

How it will go: I’m almost positive that Luis Suarez is going to win this and that’s probably fair, but also because he’s the most famous. Suarez finished with 20 goals and 9 primary assists, which is an admittedly amazing season – especially for a 37-year-old that supposedly has a bum knee. I'd have no complaints.

Young Player of the Year

Finalists: Diego Gómez (Inter Miami CF); Diego Luna (Real Salt Lake); Cristian Olivera (LAFC)

My vote: Diego Luna was really, really good and I hope he wins. He had 8 goals and 8 primary assists, while being asked to be RSL’s main playmaker for much of the season. He’s such a fun player and I really hope U.S. Soccer doesn’t blow it by letting him go to Mexico.

How it will go: I’m fighting my cynical instincts that suggest it will go to Gomez, who played less than 1,400 minutes and wasn’t really much better than Obed Vargas by the counting stats while being asked to do less defensively. So I’m hoping voters agree and picked Luna.

Best XI

My vote (3-4-3): Kahlina; Adilson Malanda (Charlotte), Yeimar, Moreira; Artur (Houston), Riqi Puig (LA Galaxy), Evander (Portland Timbers), Lucho Acosta (FC Cincinnati); Denís Bouanga (LAFC), Cucho, Messi.

If I had a second-team Best XI (4-2-3-1): Frei; Alba, Ragen, Joseph Rosales, Malte Almundson; Cole Bassett, Robin Lod, Ryan Gauld, Albert Rusnák, Gabriel Pec; Christian Benteke.

My reasoning: I didn’t go strictly by the “this team could actually play together” standard that some use, but I tried to at least not cheat by going with four forwards or three No. 10s. I think this could at least be a credible all-star team. The most glaring omission was probably Christian Benteke, who won the Golden Boot, but didn’t even get his team into the playoffs. Because I felt it was important to have at least one plausible defensive-minded midfielder, I flopped between Cole Bassett and Sergio Busquets but ultimately decided that Artur was just too good to leave off. I was also ready to put Pec in the team, but LAFC nipping the Galaxy on Decision Day prompted me to change my vote to Bouanga.

How it will go: I am sure Benteke will get on somehow and they’ll probably cheat by drawing it up like Bouanga or Messi are actually midfielders. That’s going to knock off Artur. I also suspect Alba is going to take Malanda’s spot, which I guess is fine, and I can’t really argue if Ragen gets in over Yeimar. To recap: Kahlina; Moreira, Ragen, Alba; Puig, Evander, Acosta; Bouanga, Messi, Benteke, Cucho are who I think will make it.