Understanding the stakes for Sounders’ regular-season finale

Jeremiah Oshan -

As we head into the final week of the MLS regular season, the stakes in the Seattle Sounders’ match against the Portland Timbers on Saturday are crystal clear. For better or worse, it’s all pretty straightforward.

Thanks to LAFC’s 2-1 win over the Vancouver Whitecaps on Sunday, the Sounders can only finish third or fourth in the Western Conference. But everything from who they might face on the path to the final, to Conacacaf Champions Cup qualification and, of course, the Cascadia Cup winner remain undetermined.

Here’s a look at the various scenarios:

Playoff seeding

Where the Sounders finish is as set as it has ever been heading into the final day. We know the Sounders will have home-field advantage in the first round, but which side of the bracket they’re on and who they could potentially face can change quite a bit depending on various results.

As things stand now, the Sounders are third in the West and will stay in that spot if they beat the Timbers. Interestingly, the Sounders have only finished third in the West twice before and not since 2012. They’d be matched up against the Colorado Rapids, with the winner of LAFC-Minnesota United looming in the Western Conference semifinals.

All things considered, this is a fine draw for the Sounders, who have historically performed exceptionally well against the Rapids. The Sounders are 25-8-4 against the Rapids in MLS competition, which includes a record of 16-2-2 at Lumen Field. Potentially facing LAFC in the next round isn’t exactly ideal, but Minnesota at least has a puncher’s chance after going 6-2-1 in their last nine. The Loons and LAFC each won at home in their two meetings this year and have tied four of their previous eight meetings.

RSL can still jump the Sounders for the No. 3 spot, but it requires them to get a better result on Decision Day at home against the Whitecaps.

Other potential matchups:

  • The Houston Dynamo have a home game against the LA Galaxy and can finish anywhere from fifth to seventh. The Sounders went 1-0-1 against the Dynamo this year and have a historic record of 13-0-3 against them at Lumen Field.
  • Minnesota host St. Louis City and can finish anywhere from fifth to eighth. The Sounders are 3-0-0 against the Loons across all competitions this year and have never dropped a point against them at home, although they needed two very late goals to beat them in their only playoff encounter.
  • The Whitecaps finish up at RSL and can finish anywhere from sixth to ninth. They’ve hit a rough patch recently, going winless in their last six league games (0-4-2). The Sounders went 1-1-1 against the Whitecaps this year and are 10-5-4 against them all-time at Lumen Field.

Concacaf Champions Cup qualification

There are still multiple paths for the Sounders to get into the CCC next year, but the most straightforward at this point is to earn one of the two spots that remain unclaimed based on the Supporters’ Shield standings. Without getting too bogged down in the minutiae, just know that two of FC Cincinnati, the Sounders and RSL will get in. All three teams are currently tied on 56 points, with the Sounders behind FC Cincinnati and ahead of RSL on the first tiebreaker (wins).

There is a slight wrinkle in this, though, as the Concacaf rules state that the first CCC qualification tiebreaker is goal differential. In that scenario, the Sounders would have a leg up on FC Cincinnati and are currently tied with RSL. Officials I’ve talked to said they expect Concacaf to amend those rules so that they follow the MLS tiebreaker procedure, but either way the Sounders would ensure their spot by beating the Timbers.

FC Cincinnati, who were Supporters’ Shield contenders a few months ago, have hit a bit of a rough patch. They are 2-7-2 in their last 11 league games and are currently on a three-game losing streak. They will finish up at the Philadelphia Union.

Cascadia Cup

The Sounders have one path to reclaiming the Cascadia Cup: beating the Timbers. While a tie would leave all three teams equal on eight points, and the Timbers and Sounders would be equal on goal differenential (+1), Portland would ultimately take home the trophy as they have scored two more goals.

Cascadia Cup Standings

But winning the Cascadia Cup after tying this game would feel a bit empty, anyway. The Sounders haven’t beaten the Timbers at Lumen Field since 2017, a hard-to-believe run of nine regular-season games. As well as the Sounders have been playing over the last few months, a win over the Timbers is the only way that vibes are going to be high going into the playoffs.

Other odds and ends

  • The Sounders will finish with the league’s best defense as long as they allow three fewer goals than Charlotte FC. They also currently have allowed the fewest expected goals. This would be the second straight season and the third time in the last four years that the Sounders have allowed the fewest goals.
  • The Sounders current total of 56 points is already tied for the fifth most they’ve ever had in a season. A win would tie for their fourth highest total.
  • The Sounders goal difference of +16 is currently tied for their fifth best total ever. Their best-ever goal-difference during a 34-game season was +20, which they accomplished in 2021.
  • Jordan Morris is currently on 17 goals across all competitions. The Sounders’ single-season record is 19, set by Obafemi Martins in 2014.
  • Albert Rusnák is one assist away from tying Nicolás Lodeiro’s regular-season record (16). He has already tied Lodeiro’s single-season, all-competition assists record (18).