Three stats Sounders must change to finally beat LAFC

LAFC have crushed the Seattle Sounders’ hopes in three straight knockout meetings and will be on a mission to make it four en route to a potential third consecutive MLS Cup final. It’s unfair to label LAFC as “unbeatable” — they lost to the Vancouver Whitecaps 3-0 just a few weeks ago — but to the Sounders, they might as well be.

The Sounders have only have five wins over LAFC in 22 all-time matchups across all competitions and have been unable to come out on top in more than three years. With revenge, bragging rights and a ticket to the Western Conference Final on the line, the Sounders will need to make some major changes if they hope to finally get that elusive win on Saturday. In order to do that, here are three stats they’ll need to fix heading into the match: 

12

That’s how many over-the-top passes LAFC completed when both teams met in Leagues Cup play in August. An over-the-top (OTT) pass is defined as a long ball that begins before the opposing team’s “line of engagement” — the average height of that team’s defensive actions — and ends behind it. While LAFC don’t always look to play a high volume of these types of balls, they often find success when they do — especially against opponents that play with high lines. This was especially clear when LAFC trounced Seattle in the quarterfinals of the Leagues Cup 3-0, with goals from Ryan Hollingshead, Kei Kamara and Denís Bouanga. Two of those goals were created directly by OTT passes; Hollingshead’s goal 13 minutes into the match was due to a pinpoint lob from Giorgio Chiellini at half-field and Bouanga’s sprint in behind and 1v1 finish came from a beautiful drop-kick by Hugo Lloris. 

Although the former wasn’t recorded as a direct assist (Hollingshead’s touch bounced off Alex Roldan’s chest and right back into his path), both goals were due to catastrophic failures in the Sounders’ defensive setup that left them incapable of dealing with the OTT ball.

On the first goal, Yeimar Gomez Andrade stepped up to pressure Kamara, forcing Alex Roldan to pinch in and manmark Bouanga, which left his older brother to cover Hollingshead on the wing. Communication broke down, though, and Cristian Roldan didn’t realize he had lost his mark until the pass had been played. By the time both brothers responded, Hollingshead already had a sizable head-start, and with the help of a lucky bounce, he was through on goal.

On Bouanga’s strike — which ended up being the final nail in the coffin for the Sounders’ semifinal hopes — a failed possession high up the field left far too many players out of position and only two ready to defend the counter. Unfortunately, with Jackson Ragen just outside the opposing penalty area and Yeimar in no-man’s-land, those two final defenders ended up being Nouhou Tolo and João Paulo — who were no match for Bouanga’s pace. Bouanga scored an eerily similar goal in the previous game against the Sounders as well.

The Sounders pride themselves on being a defense-first team, but have always had issues carrying that same mentality into games against LAFC. To really have a shot at limiting LAFC’s offensive output, they’ll need to be prepared to defend those balls over the backline and maintain high levels of organization out-of-possession.