MLS Fantasy Week 4: Getting away with it

Week 4 is upon us with a new set of puzzles to solve. Will the teams in CCC, whether eliminated or not, have another week of hangover? Will any of the doormats wake from their slumber? Will New England finally score a goal? Will Miami or Vancouver finally lose a game? Then there are the two surprise teams: Philadelphia is undefeated and has the highest GD in the league, and San Diego is on seven of nine points after winning in their first trip to Salt Lake (SD: "what, like it's hard?"). These teams can't keep getting away with it, can they?

Week 4 wchedule

We have a double early feature on Saturday, as the Red Bulls host Orlando and Toronto hosts Chicago at 11:30 am PT. And before those games finish, LAFC will kick off against Austin at 12:45 pm.

This presents an intriguing set of games. The first match is a repeat of the 2024 Eastern Conference Finals. The Red Bulls have scored a total of two goals this year (both at home against Nashville) and allowed one goal (at Cincinnati). Orlando has scored seven and allowed eight. Do with that what you will. Toronto and Chicago have allowed 15 goals and have scored 11 goals combined. Their games are averaging over four combined goals! LAFC gets a relatively "easy" game at home coming off their nail-biting CCC advancement over Columbus.

Later we have a big set of 4:30 pm and 5:30 pm kickoffs, with just two late matches (San Diego vs. Columbus and San Jose vs. Colorado). Montreal have lost three road games, and I don't see them taking a win at DC. NYCFC get the pleasure of hosting New England, who are goalless on the year, and I don't think this is their week to change that. Dallas gets the Whitecaps, who may have earned themselves a deserved rest, and I'm thinking the Whitecaps earn their first L of the year. St. Louis has not given up a goal and are now hosting the suddenly limping Seattle.

Then on Sunday we have three more games. Philadelphia host Nashville in the early game (11:25 am PT), the Galaxy visit Portland at 1:45 pm, then the nightcap is another Eastern Conference playoff rematch as Atlanta gets Miami at 4:00 pm. Each of these games seems ripe for points.

Quick rankings

GK: Carlos Coronel (NYR $7.0m), Hugo Lloris/Thomas Hasal (LAFC $7.4m/$4.9m), Matt Freese (NYC $5.8m), Roman Burki (STL $8.1m), CJ Dos Santos (SD $7.5m)

DEF: Kai Wagner (PHI $8.6m), Nealis/Nealis/Elie (NYR $7.2/$6.2m/$7.0m), Justin Haak/Thiago Martins (NYC $4.7m/$6.1m), [LAFC defender? see below], Morris Duggan (MIN $5.0m), Henry Kessler (STL $7.8m), Andy Najar (NSH $7.3m)

MID: Anders Dreyer (SD $9.1m), Albert Rusnak (SEA $9.8m), Federico Bernardeschi (TOR $9.0m), Daniel Gazdag (PHI $9.3m), Emil Forsberg (NYR $8.7m), Hany Mukhtar (NSH $8.7m), Marcel Hartel ($8.7m), Marco Reus ($8.0m), David Da Costa/Antony (POR $9.0m/$8.0m), Maxi Morales ($7.1m)

Budget mid picks: Jovan Lukic (PHI $6.2m), David Martinez (LAFC $6.1m), Hosei Kijima (DCU $6.0m), Georgi Minoungou (SEA $5.3m)

FWD: Leo Messi (MIA $10.4m), Christian Benteke (DCU $9.8m), Tai Baribo (PHI $8.8m), Hugo Cuypers (CHI $9.0m), Kelvin Yeboah (MIN $8.9m), Gabriel Pec (LAG $8.5m), Julian Fernandez (NYC $6.5m)

Thoughts and players

Defenses

New York Red Bulls - As noted above they have only allowed one goal on the season. Orlando have scored seven so it could go either way. I'm not going all-in on the Red Bulls, but they are a reasonable bet in the early games. Carlos Coronel ($7.0m) in net and any of the Nealis brothers or Elie is fine – there's not much to distinguish them. I had been recommending Omar Valencia, but Raheem Edwards is healthy and likely to replace him in the lineup.

LAFC - Despite shipping 5 goals to the Sounders and dealing with CCC congestion, they still have the third-best xGA in the West and top-six overall. Austin only has one goal scored. Austin can certainly play spoiler, and LAFC may rotate, but on paper this should be a great matchup for the LAFC defense. Check the lineups for this one, anyone really could be starting.

NYCFC - New England have yet to score a goal. NYCFC's defense has been average, but this is about as easy of a game as they'll get (plus, Leo Campana is injured). You'll want Matt Freese ($5.8m) and one or both of Justin Haak ($4.7m) or Thiago Martins ($6.1m). Haak has started at DM and CB, playing 90 minutes each game. He hasn't been high-scoring, but he's a cheap and solid starter for fantasy. Martins is healthy now and may have higher upside.

St. Louis - No goals given up? No Morris or Arriola? Rusnak on a ton of minutes? Seems like St. Louis's shutout streak is likely to continue. That being said, the Sounders have gotten goals from all over the roster and I'm not personally betting against Seattle this week. Maybe that's homerism and maybe that's logic, I don't know. If you want St. Louis, Roman Burki ($8.1m) and Henry Kessler ($7.8m) are the top choices.

??? - The late games Saturday and the Sunday games don't have a clear candidate for clean sheets that I see. Still, if I had to pick one of the later teams, I think San Diego is top of the choices for a clean sheet. San Diego has had a stout defense, and the Crew are traveling cross-country on short rest.

Defenders

Kai Wagner ($8.6m) - Another assist and his first clean sheet last week along with a KP bonus point. He's the most expensive defender in the game for good reason.

Andy Najar ($7.3m) - Monster week last week with a goal, clean sheet, and two BPs. He now has 14 KPs on the season. Unlikely to clean sheet away to Philly, but that would be a bonus on top of his offensive output.

Morris Duggan ($5.0m) - He's played 90 minutes in each game. Minnesota shut out Montreal and San Jose, and Duggan had eight clearances for two BPs and tacked on five KPs for another bonus against San Jose (note that he has zero KPs in his other two games). Away at SKC is risky, but Duggan should be set for a price rise at the least.

Midfielders

Anders Dreyer ($9.1m) - This madman had 18 KPs on the road at RSL. That's crazy. He scored two against the Galaxy and still had 6 points when getting shut out by St. Louis at home. Seems like San Diego will be in good hands while Lozano gets healthy.

Albert Rusnak ($9.8m) - He's the highest-cost midfielder in the game and for good reason. He had an assist and six BPs against Charlotte, three BPs against RSL, and then off the bench in 54 minutes he was at the center of the destruction of LAFC, snagging a goal, two assists, and four more BPs. Assuming he's starting given Seattle's focus will be on the regular season now, he should still have heavy involvement on the road, working with whoever starts alongside him. I think his floor is around five points, but he is likely to get 8+ if Seattle can be the ones to finally crack St. Louis.

Emil Forsberg ($8.7m) - Nothing too crazy here, he's had 30-37 passes and four KPs in each game so far, with one goal. I think the Red Bulls are in for at least a goal in this game against Orlando and he seems like the best bet to be involved.

Federico Bernardeschi ($9.1m) - One goal and one assist on the year, he's also got 18 total KPs and nine "shots at goal" per the fantasy stats. This game will be Toronto's home opener and they get the woeful defense of Chicago. I know Chicago stymied Lucho and Musa last week, but they were lucky not to have conceded three goals. I think Berna has the highest ceiling in this matchup and is a good player to have on your bench from the early games.

Daniel Gazdag ($9.3m) - He was a disappointment against New England but is still the center of Philly's attack. He should be better off back at home.

Jovan Lukic ($6.2m) - He had a stunning goal against New England and tacked on six KPs and five shots at goal. He's only missed two minutes this year and is seemingly a big reason Philly have turned things around. May be a good idea to pick him up now while his price continues to rise.

Hany Mukhtar ($8.7m) - Even though he did not convert his penalty against Portland (hard to fault him given the quality save) and Surridge took the next PK (also saved!), he put up six points from his BPs (he'd have had 13 pts if he scored the PK). 14 KPs, five crosses and six shots at goal. That's 11 BPs across three games. Mukhtar should find space against Philly in what could easily be a shootout.

Marcel Hartel ($8.7m) - Last week Hartel led St. Louis's evisceration of the Galaxy, scoring a goal and adding 11 KPs and five shots at goal. He probably won't find as much room against Seattle, but he had another 11 KPs against Colorado to open the year. Seattle may sit back to nurse their weary legs, so expect Hartel to be at the center of St. Louis's attacks.

Maxi Morales ($7.1m) - He took a yellow and wasn't on the score sheet last week, but he still had a respectable eight KPs and four crosses. I am expecting more of the same against the Revs.

Marco Reus ($8.0m) - He sat out against Herediano but that was "nothing serious, more management than anything else" per coach Greg Vanney. He had an ineffective game against San Diego, only played 20 minutes against the Whitecaps, then had 54 passes, 13 KPs and four shots at goal against St. Louis. No goal contributions yet, but if he's starting against Portland you can bet he'll be involved (they'll need him to be).

David Da Costa ($9.0m) and Antony ($8.0m) - These two have been the only real "bright" spots for the Timbers so far. Antony had a consolation goal against the Whitecaps and Da Costa had a good (kinda) direct free kick goal to win it against Austin. At Nashville, Antony contributed eight KPs and four shots at goal, while Da Costa has 11 KPs and six crosses over the last two games. One or both of these guys should have a decent game against the Galaxy's weak defense.

David Martinez ($6.1m), Hosei Kijima ($6.0m), and Georgi Minoungou ($5.3m) - In addition to Lukic above (who I like the best of the budget picks here) these guys are honorable budget options if you need someone at about $6m or less. They should be starting and will be involved in the offense. Minutes are a concern, but at this price you can't be picky.

Forwards

Leo Messi ($10.4m) - He's been rested for a few games now and scored a late one in Jamaica after playing for about 40 minutes. He does play the last game of the week so your options are limited if he's not starting, but I think he will.

Christian Benteke ($9.8m) - Three games, three goals. He's also still getting bonus points this year. Another no-brainer at home against Montreal.

Tai Baribo ($8.8m) - Three games, six goals. Nashville is a tougher opponent, but he's still way out ahead in npxG and, of course, actual goals scored. Another very obvious choice.

Hugo Cuypers ($9.0m) - Followed up his two-goal game with a goal+assist game in Dallas. If it's a shootout in Toronto, I'll bet he's involved.

Kelvin Yeboah ($8.9m) - Under the radar pick, but he's got the 2nd highest npxG in the league and gets to play SKC. The Sporks have not held a clean sheet in any game thus far.

Gabriel Pec ($8.5m) - He's had one goal against the Whitecaps and had a goal+assist against Herediano. The Galaxy were shut out by St. Louis but Pec still put in a seven-point performance with 60 passes, 11 KPs and nine shots at goal. I like him as a late pick against the Timbers.

Julian Fernandez ($6.5m) - He's my budget pick of the week. NYCFC has tried Agustin Ojeda and Monsef Bakrar and now Julian Fernandez as wing options opposite of Hannes Wolf. Fernandez had a great game in his minutes against Orlando, with eight KPs and four shots at goal, assisting Wolf's opening goal of the match. Minutes are a concern (he and Alonso Martinez left in the 72nd minute for Ojeda and Bakrar) but if he's given another start he could shine as a budget pick.

Captain considerations

Leo Messi - As always, the top option when he is starting.

Christian Benteke - Contrary to last year, he's been very consistent and is earning BPs.

Tai Baribo - He's leading the golden boot race and has earned it.

Andres Dreyer - One of the few healthy, rested and consistently elite midfield options who is playing at home this week. He's already got two double-digit games under his belt, can he make it a third against a tired Crew? I think he just might.

What I'm watching for this week

I think a lot will be revealed this week about how the year goes. Can Philly and San Diego prove they are actually elite teams and take care of their home games? Will the CCC hangover keep hurting teams like Seattle, Columbus and Cincinnati? Can Vancouver, LAFC, Galaxy and Miami handle the continued CCC pressures? Will the bad teams like Toronto, Montreal, Kansas City, New England and Dynamo remain bad? Those teams especially have opportunities to climb out of the gutter this week and get their first wins.