The MLS schedule keeps throwing curveballs, this week playing straight through a competitive international window (mostly). I'll give you some guidance on which teams to avoid and which might be worth targeting. Fortunately, we get to push the Messi question to another week since Miami is on a bye. Though of course he was called up, and on top of that is apparently injured so won't play for Argentina anyway. Whatever the case, we get to focus on other players this week.
First, here's the link to alllll the injuries and absences: https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-5-saturday-march-22-sunday-march-23
Week 5 Quick Rankings
GK: Kristijan Kahlina (CLT $7.5m), Joe Willis (NSH $8.1m), Stefan Frei (SEA $5.8m), Evan Bush (CLB $4.5m), if you want an early cheap punt then Alec Smir (MIN $4.5m)
DEF: Luca Orellano (CIN $9.2m), Brooks Lennon (ATL $6.9m), Maya Yoshida (LAG $6.8m), Andrew Privett (CLT $7.3m) and maybe Bill Tuiloma (CLT $5.25m), Walker Zimmerman (NSH $8.3m) and maybe Josh Bauer (NSH $5.6m), Jackson Ragen or Jonathan Bell (SEA $6.5m/$4.8m), Kai Wagner (PHI $9.1m)
MID: Albert Rusnak (SEA $10.3m), Anders Dreyer (SD $9.6m), Hany Mukhtar (NSH $9.2m) Djordje Mihailovic (COL $8.8m), Jovan Lukic (PHI $6.7m), Martin Ojeda (ORL $9.5m), Evander (CIN $9.2m), Danny Leyva/Georgi Minoungou (SEA $5.7m/$5.3m), Marcel Hartel (STL $9.2m), Emil Forsberg (NYR $8.8m)
FWD: Christian Benteke (DCU $10.3m), Hugo Cuypers (CHI $9.5m), Rafael Navarro (COL $8.8m), Sam Surridge (NSH $7.7m), Eric Choupo-Moting (NYR $7.9m), Gabriel Pec (LAG $9.0m), Jesus Ferreira (SEA $7.2m)
Week 5 Schedule
Bye: Miami, New England
Saturday's early games start with one of the most intriguing games of the week, at least from a fantasy perspective. Cincinnati plays Atlanta at 11:30 am Pacific. The big issue here is that Atlanta has had a lot of call ups – they are missing four central defenders plus Almiron and Slisz. It's unclear what their plan is at RCB, though the rest of the defense should be "set." On the other hand, Cincinnati is missing Denkey. This could be a great one for Evander and Orellano.
At 1:30 pm, Minnesota plays the Galaxy. Minnesota is missing key players while the winless (in league play) Galaxy are not. I like the Galaxy here, especially if Yeboah is not healthy enough to start for Minnesota, but this could go either way.
The Saturday night slate is East Coast-heavy, with five games kicking off at 4:30 pm, then two each at 5:30 pm, 6:30 pm, and 7:30 pm.
I like Charlotte, particularly their defense, against San Jose, who are lacking Josef Martinez. SJ has come back to Earth, losing their two recent matches. This East Coast road game against one of the toughest defenses will be a huge test.
Orlando against DC should be a game with plenty of goals, and there aren't any important call ups to work around.
Philadelphia against St. Louis could be a great game. Philly has the most goals scored in the league and St. Louis still (unfortunately) has given up zero. Philly is missing Gazdag and Baribo though, so their firepower is greatly diminished. St. Louis is not missing anyone. I definitely think St. Louis can get the road shutout and claim the record for goalless minutes to open a season, I'm not sure I'm going to bet on it though.
I think Nashville are proving to be a problem under BJ Callahan, and should have a great home performance against Montreal. This is game five of Montreal's seven-game road trip to open the season. They gutted out a 0-0 draw against DC last week, but I don't see them getting as fortunate against Nashville.
Vancouver hosts Chicago in what I think is going to be a trap game for Vancouver. Even though they've finally had a bit of rest, they are missing Gauld (injury), White, Vite, Cubas and Ahmed (call-ups). Yes, they've been basically perfect in their games this year, but this is still the same team that had more road points last year than home points. Chicago have won two in a row on the road – against worse teams, of course – but I think they have the pieces to take a third road win (or tie, at least) here.
And finally, Seattle is playing Houston. The Dynamo have been a very bad team this year, losing all three of their home games and barely being stubborn enough for a 0-0 draw at Columbus. I don't think Houston will remain bottom of the league all year – their -1.3 xGD would put them above five other teams in the West and just outside a playoff spot – but I don't think they will have any success in this one. They are missing Jack McGlynn, who has taken on the midfield engine role from Hector Herrera, and his 274/326 passing (fourth-most passes in the league). Seattle should dominate the midfield and create plenty of chances.
The lone Sunday game is Austin hosting San Diego at 1:00 pm. Austin took a deserved win at LAFC last week and have just as big of a test at home this week. The way they won in LA was by getting an early goal and then letting LAFC have all the possession. As has been the case for LAFC this year, they could not break down Austin's defensive structure despite having over 700 passes to Austin's 300. I don't know if that will be the approach against San Diego or if it would even work, but this is one I find difficult to target for fantasy purposes.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
Galaxy - They have an early game against Minnesota on Saturday, and Minnesota will be missing Lod, Oluwaseyi and possibly Yeboah (though he was not on the injury report this week). I think Maya Yoshida ($6.8m) is a worthwhile early play. He consistently has amongst the highest passing totals on the team, getting two passing BPs in every match so far this year, and picked up a clearance bonus last week for 5 points without a clean sheet. He's also consistently a danger on set pieces.
Charlotte - They're hosting San Jose, and Charlotte are one of the best defensive teams. Take Andrew Privett ($7.3m) or whoever is replacing Tim Ream for a bargain. Maybe Bill Tuiloma ($5.25m).
Nashville - They have been decent defensively and get to host Montreal on their tour. Walker Zimmerman ($8.3m) is the sure thing, and if you want a cheaper option look for Andy Najar's replacement. Maybe Josh Bauer ($5.6m).
Seattle - Houston has just three goals this year, none on the road (well, in their one road game, maybe that's a small sample size). Seattle has had some time to rest up and will likely get back on track with everyone's expectations, especially in the defense. Nouhou is out but Jonathan Bell ($4.8m) should step in capably. Jackson Ragen ($6.5m) is the premium option.
Defenders
Luca Orellano (CIN $8.6m) - Targeting Atlanta's absences, Orellano is for the bold of heart who love the out-of-position defender (he plays attacking mid for Cincinnati). In 150 minutes he's had seven KPs and seven shots at goal. I don't think he's a "must have" but has one of the highest ceilings for defenders this week (and any week, really).
Kai Wagner (PHI $9.1m) - He's missing a lot of key teammates but St. Louis have not had a fearsome attack thus far and Philadelphia may play more conservatively in this match. Wagner is still averaging four KPs and just under 3 crosses a game. If Philly do get chances, you can bet Wagner will be involved.
Brooks Lennon (ATL $6.9m) - Back in the lineup, Lennon had a perfect cross for a Latte Lath headed goal, a passing bonus and 4 KPs, plus another cross for a barely offside Latte Lath headed goal. Atlanta still have a lot of work to do to fix their offense, but Lennon serving up balls for Latte Lath could go a long way towards that end.
Midfielders
Hany Mukhtar (NSH $9.2m) - A goal on the road plus seven KPs and five shots. He had five bonus points in his last home match. I think he's set for a good week.
Djordje Mihailovic (COL $8.8m) - Mukhtar's five-BP game came against Portland at home. And, well, Colorado host Portland this week. Mihailovic has not quite reached the same heights he did last year, but I think this will be a good week for him.
Albert Rusnák (SEA $10.3m) - A popular captain pick this week, even in last week's shutout loss he had five points from bonuses in passes, KPs and crosses. In Seattle's home games he had 11 points against Charlotte and 16 off the bench against LAFC. On top of all that, Houston is missing their most important midfielder. Seattle should control this game, with Rusnák on the ball a ton. What I'm saying is you should pick him.
Anders Dreyer (SD $9.6m) - If Austin cede possession again, Dreyer will be the one working to punish them for it. He had nine KPs and three crosses last week, which I think is pretty much the floor for him. There are better budget options, but if you have the budget then I think he's got a very high ceiling this week.
Jovan Lukic (PHI $6.7m) - Speaking of which, Lukic has a top 5 average for points for midfielders (of course this leaves out his 2-point week 1, when he wasn't in the game). Goals in back-to-back games, plus a pair of bonus points in those games on top. With Gazdag out he'll be relied on in the final third.
Martin Ojeda (ORL $9.5m) - Another expensive option, Ojeda has two goals and an assist, plus nine total BPs. Of course, six of those BPs came in Week 1, but Orlando are back at home against DC this week.
Evander (CIN $9.2m) - We finally saw an "Evander" performance (in fantasy) last week as he earned five BPs mostly off the back of 14 (!) KPs. If he's settled into Pat Noonan's system, it probably doesn't matter if Denkey is up top or if it's Kubo or Baird or maybe Pat himself. He'll find pockets of space to create dangerous chances. Very strong early-game option.
Danny Leyva/Georgi Minoungou (SEA $5.7m/$5.3m) - Georgi played 90 minutes last week and had 6 KPs. Leyva is likely starting this week in place of Obed Vargas (away with Mexico's U-20s) and racked up 105 passes in his last start against LAFC. Leyva also had a fantastic goal called off last week for a Danny Musovski foul on the keeper. Leyva will score before the year is out and Minoungou continues to raise his game. I like either of them as budget options and Georgi especially as a candidate for a price rise. Paul Rothrock also deserves a shout-out at $7.2m, but he's only really had one incredible game this year and 2.5 mediocre ones.
Marcel Hartel (STL $9.2m) - If St. Louis can impose their will on Philadelphia in a similar way to Nashville, Hartel is going to be the beneficiary. He had six points last week with no goal contributions and Seattle controlling large parts of the match.
Emil Forsberg (NYR $8.8m) - I'm not super high on Forsberg, but he is playing at home against Toronto, plus more of the attacking weight will fall on him with Dennis Gjengaar out on international duty.
Forwards
Christian Benteke (DCU $10.3m) - No goal last week but he still had six points with his bonuses. I don't know what's changed with him (different role? different teammates? different stats counters?) but he is not like last year where he either had 15-20 points or two points. That bonus point floor means I can strongly recommend him, even on the road to Orlando.
Rafael Navarro (COL $8.8m) - Here for the same reason as Mihailovic, he gets to play Portland at home.
Sam Surridge (NSH $7.7m) - Here because he plays Montreal at home. He has just one goal so far, and has a penalty miss, but his bonus point production of eight total (six net, once you subtract his negatives for fouls he's made) are a good sign for continued involvement.
Gabriel Pec (LAG $9.0m) - Nine bonus points over the last two weeks have kept his scores high without any goal contributions. I think Galaxy get points against Minnesota and Pec is most likely to be the one to earn them.
Hugo Cuypers (CHI $9.5m) - As said above I think Chicago can steal points or win this one, and Cuypers is key to their attack. No Gutierrez this week but Cuypers stepped up in his absence.
Eric Choupo-Moting (NYR $7.9m) - Home match against Toronto, and last week he was handed the PK attempt which he scored. 11 KPs last week, 25 total on the year! He has not quite broken out yet but he's well-positioned to do so.
Jesus Ferreira (SEA $7.2m) - He had a decent game against LAFC and not a very good one (fantasy-wise at least) against St. Louis. I expect Saturday's match to be closer to the LAFC game and give Ferreira time and space to connect and maybe grab his first goal of the season. He's also about as low as I would go for a "budget" forward.
Captain considerations
Albert Rusnák - Top choice this week given the matchup, Houston's missing key player, and the absences around the league.
Hany Mukhtar - A bonus point machine, if Nashville get rolling again like they did against Portland, he'll have a big game.
Christian Benteke - High floor with a high ceiling, he's on the road but Orlando has conceded two goals in every game and six goals at home.
Djordje Mihailovic - He does get Portland at home. Colorado is dealing with some injuries and he won't be a popular pick but could easily pop off in a big way.
