Well, that was certainly A Week. Hopefully you were happy with your score, because I sure left a lot on the table. My biggest mistake was not listening to myself and going with the wrong Nashville defender, but that's the way the season goes. Some way overperformed in the international week, many others disappointed. I'm okay with my overall rank (427), but I have some work to do to make it back to the FCL since I am definitely not making it this round. Maybe you'll have better luck!
For more of my thoughts, you can find me over on the MLS Fantasy Insider podcast this week! You can find the audio or video stream over at their Round 6 Preview.
Week 6 quick rankings
Goalkeepers
Aljaz Ivacic (NE $6.8m), Chris Brady (CHI $6.5m) (yes, I know), Dayne St. Clair (MIN $7.1m), CJ Dos Santos (SD $7.1m), Brad Stuver (ATL $7.1m)
Defenders
Mamadou Fofana (NE $6.9m), Kai Wagner (Q) (PHI $9.6m), Sam Rogers (CHI $5.6m), Jordi Alba (MIA $7.4m), Morris Duggan (MIN $5.9m), Paddy McNair (SD $8.0m), Brendan Hines-Ike (ATL $7.8m)
Midfielders
Money (>$8.5m): Lucho Acosta (DAL $8.7m), Hany Mukhtar (NSH $9.7m), Martin Ojeda (ORL $10.0m), Albert Rusnak (SEA $10.8m), Anders Dreyer (SD $10.1m), David Da Costa (POR $9.5m), Cristian Espinoza ($9.0m)
Midprice ($7.0m to $8.5m): Philip Zinckernagel (CHI $8.1m), Pep Biel (CLT $8.3m), Owen Wolff (ATX $7.7m)
Bargain (<$7.0m): Jeppe Tverskov (SD $6.7m), Dennis Gjengaar (RBNY $6.5m)
Forwards
Tier A: Leo Messi (MIA $10.9m), Hugo Cuypers (CHI $10.0m), Kelvin Yeboah (MIN $9.9m)
Tier B: Luis Suarez (MIA $10.1m), Brian White (VAN $7.9m), Tai Baribo (PHI $9.3m), Christian Benteke (DC $10.8m), Luis Muriel (ORL $8.7m), Emmanuel Latte Lath (ATL $8.7m)
Dart throws: Petar Musa (DAL $9.6m), Christian Arango (SJ $9.6m), Gabriel Pec (LA $8.8m), Tanitoluwa Oluwaseyi (MIN $7.4m)
Week 6 schedule
No byes this week, we are back to a full slate. However, keep in mind that four teams have CCC action next week: Galaxy, LAFC, Miami and Vancouver. I doubt it impacts starting lineups, but some key players might be pulled earlier than normal for injury avoidance.
Two early 11:30 am PT matchups start us off, Toronto vs. Vancouver and New England vs. New York Red Bulls. They’re not the most appealing games, but the NE/RBNY match looks like one or both teams will earn clean sheets.
Midafternoon, Colorado hosts Charlotte at 1:30 pm. Colorado had been undefeated, and yet coming off two road wins last week they put up a goose egg against Portland at home, losing 3-0. They have one of the two worst xGDs in the league, despite their eight points. Perhaps that loss was a sign of things to come?
The Saturday night slate has an even mix of 4:30 pm, 5:30 pm and 7:30 pm games. I am especially interested in Miami hosting Philadelphia at 4:30 pm, a game ripe for goals. At 5:30 pm I am surprisingly looking forward to Chicago facing Montreal for a fourth Chicago win in a row, and also eyeing Minnesota against RSL, a game where Minnesota are heavy favorites and should deliver. All three matches at 7:30 pm should be good ones, Galaxy have just two league points and face a high-scoring Orlando squad, San Diego hosts likely rivals LAFC for the first time, and Seattle travels to San Jose, where things always get weird.
On Sunday, St. Louis kicks off against Austin at 11:15 am PT, a match primed for another Austin road win (in my opinion) and Portland faces Houston at 4:00 pm.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
This is not a great week for defenses. A lot of good defensive teams are on the road or are hosting a strong offensive team. For example, Nashville have been one of the strongest defenses this season but they're hosting Cincinnati. Advanced stats like the matchup for NSH, but FCC spent the early part of the season getting Evander up to speed while dealing with CCC and have missed Denkey for international call ups. Nashville is capable of holding a clean sheet, but I'm not confident enough to take them this week. There are a lot of cases like this across the league.
New England – Small sample size alert, but the Revs are one of seven teams that have maintained an xGA against of less than 1 per game. Their record is bad because they can’t score goals, but their defense is okay. Meanwhile, the Red Bulls have scored two goals in each of their home games but zero goals in their two away games. Alternatively, you could bet on the Red Bulls keeping a clean sheet like they did against Atlanta on the road, given that New England has yet to score a goal themselves (their only goal for was an Own Goal that was not particularly forced) and Campana remains out. Still, I'd rather stick with the home defense. Unless you need to trim salary, I like Mamadou Fofana ($6.9m) for his bonus point generation.
Chicago – Yes, I know, I've been targeting Chicago's defense as one of the worst in the league for a long time. In fact, their xGA is second-worst in the East. But that statistic was heavily front-loaded, with 5.4 of their 8.8 xGA coming at Columbus and against DC. Their next three games, all road wins, had a total of 3.4 xGA. I am willing to give the team a bit of grace as they adjust to Gregg Berhalter's system. Plus, this week they are hosting Montreal, who are still on their opening lengthy road trip and who just fired their coach. I'm looking to Andrew Gutman ($6.7m) if he's good to go, he's scored a couple of bangers this year already and is usually involved in the attack. Otherwise you can go with Seattle and Sounders native Sam Rogers ($5.6m) for his mix of consistency and passing bonus points.
Minnesota – They shipped five goals in the last two weeks but were a bit unlucky (and slightly sloppy) to settle for ties there. Statistically, the Loons are a top-tier defense. They have their international players back and face a very poor RSL offense this week. I like Morris Duggan of the defenders for his price ($5.9m) and minutes. You could reach for Bongokuhle Hlongwane ($8.6m) as he has heavy attacking involvement and is bound to score some goals this year.
San Diego – I expect LAFC to struggle against San Diego's possession-heavy style. If you want a defense for the night matches, I think SD is your best bet. Paddy McNair ($8.0m) has very high passing volume so offers a good floor, but Luca Bombino has started the past two weeks and is very cheap ($4.1m) and had three attacking bonus points last week in 74 minutes.
Austin – I'm going to be hypocritical for a minute and recommend a good road defense over a good home defense. St. Louis's xGA isn't anything special, while Austin's is lowest in the league. St. Louis is missing Loewen and likely Teuchert to injury (though that may not be a great loss if you listen to some of their fans). Austin held a clean sheet away to LAFC, and they can certainly do it again here. For them, I'd take Brendan Hines-Ike ($7.8m) for the potential passing BPs, though you could try and high roll with Guilherme Biro ($7.9m) with his attacking involvement or find one of their cheaper starters depending on who is in, like Svatok or Kolmanic.
Kai Wagner (PHI $9.6m) (Q) – He’s questionable with illness but is the premier offensive "defender" in the league. His four assists is tied for the league lead (amongst all players). Miami's defense has been strong so far, but if Wagner is good to go he is usually worth the premium price.
Jordi Alba (MIA $7.4m) – He had zero crosses in weeks 1-3 and then three crosses with five KPs and four fouls suffered with an assist against Atlanta. When he's on, his combinations with Suarez and Messi just rip apart opposing defenses. H has as high a ceiling as Wagner, and though he's inconsistent he comes at a significant discount.
Offenses
This week I organized my mids and forwards above into three tiers. In the midfield, you have a premium-price tier composed of players who are (generally) consistent and have high floors and higher ceilings. Unfortunately (or fortunately), it is difficult to fit a full five of the premium players in your squad unless you really trim at other positions, so I've offered alternatives at other price points. For the forwards, I think the Tier 1 forwards are a clear cut above the others this week, and then a mix of Tier 2 guys to find that last starter, plus some Dart Throws who have been inconsistent but have a path to huge points this week if you like them as a differential.
Midfielders
Money (>$8.5m)
Lucho Acosta ($8.7m) – Just barely in the money tier because he's had some disappointing games (including burning me and many others when they hosted Chicago), I like Acosta a lot this week against SKC. Peter Vermes has got to go, but we'll enjoy his tenure while it still lasts.
Hany Mukhtar (NSH $9.7m) – He didn't quite hit the ceiling we were hoping for last week, despite Nashville's three goals. And yet, he's still producing at a high level. Strongly recommend.
Albert Rusnak (SEA $10.8m) – Rusnak also didn't quite deliver what we were hoping, easily my biggest disappointment of Week 5. Though Seattle tends to struggle against San Jose, this is still a great matchup for him to get points against San Jose's terrible defense.
Anders Dreyer (SD $10.1m) – I am expecting San Diego to have more than 2/3rds possession against LAFC and Dreyer should be a big beneficiary. He had seven points with no goal contributions last week, showing his floor is about as high as anyone's.
Martin Ojeda (ORL $10.0m) – He was in my recs last week but not in my final squad. I regretted it then, I may end up regretting it again this week as he's playing the Galaxy defense. Still, he's just barely missing out of my squad.
David Da Costa (POR $9.5m) – Maybe Portland isn't that bad? Houston will have McGlynn back when they visit Portland, but the home team should still have some good looks. He's outside my top five this week, but maybe inside my top ten and I wouldn't fault you for taking him if you are lower on some of these other premium options than I am.
Cristian Espinoza ($9.0m) – Seattle is the team he's scored on the most. You'd think Starbucks had intentionally spilled hot coffee on him in the past or something. San Jose got wrecked by Charlotte, but playing from behind meant Espinoza saw a ton of the ball in attacking zones and racked up 21 KPs last week. I'm hoping for more of the same this week: lots of fantasy points, no goal contributions.
Mid-price ($7.0m to $8.5m)
Philip Zinckernagel (CHI $8.1m) – He’s the option I like best from this tier and is currently in my team. He had 11 points last week from a goal and assist with 7 KPs. Gutierrez is out this week again, so Zinckernagel should be heavily influential. Bamba could have a breakout game (at least in terms of fantasy) but Zinckernagel is the guy to take for now.
Pep Biel (CLT $8.3m) – He completely destroyed San Jose last week with a goal and two assists. If Colorado truly has one of the worst defenses in the league, as the stats suggest, Biel could have another double-digit outing.
Owen Wolff (ATX $7.7m) – Three assists on the season plus five attacking BPs. Maybe not the ceiling of the other guys, but he seems to have a high floor and he's played a full 90 minutes the last two weeks. Still just 20, he seems to be growing into his role with Austin and is worth watching.
Bargain (<$7.0m)
Onni Valakari (SD $7.0m) – Pickings are slim at this price tier, but Valakari has what I am looking for here: a reasonable path to big points. He has just 211 minutes, but his npxG + xA per 90 is second on the team to Dreyer amongst players with at least 180 minutes. Lozano is getting healthy again, but Valakari's minutes should be OK this week with Ingvartsen out. An alternate route for your bargain is SD's captain Jeppe Tverskov ($6.7m), he had 115 passes last week with 5 KPs. I'm expecting a lot of possession again for SD so he could offer you a very high floor if you just want your bargain to deliver some extra points.
Forwards
Tier A
Leo Messi (MIA $10.9m) (Q) – Maybe this should be Tier M. If Messi starts, he's in. Though it looks like he's coming off the bench due to his injury two weeks ago. Whether you risk it with him by putting him on your bench for his late game cameo points is up to you.
Hugo Cuypers (CHI $10.0m) – Despite playing 4 of 5 games on the road, Cuypers is the league-leader in xG, xG/90, and npxG, plus second in npxG/90 behind Tai Baribo. This week he faces Montreal at home. Keep in mind Cuypers had a similar profile to Denkey (briefly the league's biggest transfer fee) coming into the league, with a 20-goal season in Belgium under his belt. It's his second year and now he gets Berhalter as coach. I can easily see him challenging for the golden boot.
Kelvin Yeboah (MIN $9.9m) – He's second in xG, xG/90 and total shots and third in npxG and npxG/90. He also has a bad defense coming to town. Minnesota's attack runs through him, and he is looking to be another likely golden boot challenger.
Tier B
I’m not going to go through all these guys individually – they each have a strong combination of matchups and track records. You can go for who fits your budget (White), the highest ceiling (Suarez), consistency (Benteke), or the hot hand (the rest). It’s all up to you:
Luis Suarez (MIA $10.1m), Brian White (VAN $7.9m), Tai Baribo (PHI $9.3m), Christian Benteke (DC $10.8m), Luis Muriel (ORL $8.7m), Emmanuel Latte Lath (ATL $8.7m), Christian Arango (SJ $9.6m)
Dart throws
These guys have something very attractive about their matchup, but their recent play suggests some caution: Petar Musa (DAL $9.6m), Gabriel Pec (LA $8.8m), Tanitoluwa Oluwaseyi (MIN $7.4m)
