For those of you dear readers who made it into the first Fantasy Champions League qualifier, congratulations! For the rest of us, the next chance starts now. And it starts in some rough waters: there are potential thunderstorms that could impact games in the midwest, notably Columbus hosting Montreal and Cincinnati hosting New England, and CCC rotation could impact Columbus, Vancouver (vs Colorado), LAFC (at Houston) and Miami (vs Toronto). On top of all that, Miami hosting Toronto is the Sunday Night Soccer game of the week and who really knows if Messi will play any (or all?) of that match.
Thunderstorms did delay the St. Louis vs Austin match last week, but they were able to resume without incident (and gave me a badly needed Austin clean sheet for two of my defenders!). Large parts of the midwest and south have been devastated by severe rainfall and flooding, plus tornadoes tearing through multiple states. It should not be quite as extreme in Ohio, but there will likely be heavy rainfall. That could lead to sloppy games and soaked fields, which are always hard to predict. It's up to you whether you want to gamble on Columbus or Cincinnati players in what would otherwise be choice matchups.
Week 7 quick rankings
Goalkeepers
Rafael Cabral (RSL $6.8m), Patrick Schulte (CLB $7.3m), Brad Stuver (ATX $7.6m), Yohei Takaoka (VAN $7.4m), Oscar Ustari (MIA $4.0m)
Defenders
Justen Glad (RSL $6.8m), Luca Orellano (CIN $8.2m), Brooks Lennon (ATL $6.5m), Yevhen Cheberko/Andres Herrera (CLB $9.3m/$7.4m), Brendan Hines-Ike/Oleksander Svatok (ATX $8.3m/6.4m), Ali Ahmed (VAN $7.5m), Jordi Alba (MIA $7.7m)
Midfielders
Evander (CIN $10.2m), Martin Ojeda (ORL $10.5m), Quinn Sullivan (PHI $8.4m), Jack McGlynn (HOU $9.2m), Emil Forsberg ($9.8m), Cristian Espinoza (SJ $9.3m), Albert Rusnak/Georgi Minoungou (SEA $11.3m/$5.1m), Anders Dreyer/Onni Valakari (SD $10.5m/$7.5m)
Forwards
Tai Baribo (PHI $9.6m), Christian Benteke (DC $11.3m), Emmanuel Latte Lath (ATL $9.2m), Diego Rossi (CLB $9.5m), Kelvin Yeboah/Tanitoluwa Oluwaseyi (MIN $10.4m/$7.9m), Leo Messi (MIA $11.4m)
Week 7 schedule
The early Saturday matches are Charlotte vs Nashville at 11:30am (Pacific) and Salt Lake vs Galaxy at 1:30pm. The early rivalry match has Nashville visiting Charlotte coming off a disappointing showing at Colorado. Charlotte has some concerning underlying numbers, with a -1.9 xGD on the season despite their +4 GD overall, but should be expected to show up for the rivalry match. RSL vs Galaxy is two bad teams (third to last and last in xGD in the league, respectively) with the bonus of Galaxy needing to travel to play Tigres this week with just a 0-0 draw (where have I heard this one before?). I am personally skipping both these games, though I wouldn't fault you for taking a flier on an RSL attacker.
The 4:30pm slate of matches are all intriguing from a fantasy perspective. Atlanta hosts Dallas – another potential shootout at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. As noted above, Cincy hosts New England and Columbus faces Montreal. I'd love these home teams if the weather was normal, but considering the storms and the likely state of the field, I'm exercising caution. The Red Bulls get Chicago and Philadelphia plays Orlando. All good teams and Philly vs Orlando especially will be a clash of two of the best offenses in the league. Then just a bit later at 4:45pm Austin plays Portland, in what I think should be an Austin win – but I am not confident about that given how Portland has looked in their last two games.
Just four more games later in the day, at 5:30pm Houston hosts LAFC and a Vermes-less Kansas City plays St. Louis. At 6:30pm the Whitecaps play Colorado and then at 7:30pm San Diego is against Seattle. SKC vs STL will either be a 0-0 draw or a chaotic mess and there's probably no in-between. Whitecaps are very good but have CCC travel on Wednesday to Pumas tied 1-1, Colorado are bad (lost 3-0 at home to Portland) but also good (beat Charlotte 2-0 at home). I am planning to stay away from both these games. More on the others below.
Sunday has three games this week. NYC gets Minnesota at noon, San Jose plays DC at 2:00pm and Miami finish off the six-hours-straight soccer slate against Toronto at 4:00pm. I think SJ vs DC will be a goal-fest, but the others are difficult to predict.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
I am finding that clean sheet hunting is hard a lot of weeks this year. St. Louis is the only team with four, and they haven't held the past two weeks. A half-dozen teams have three clean sheets, but three of those are in the middle of a CCC matchup (Vancouver, Columbus, and LAFC), two are on the road (Colorado and Minnesota) and the last, Austin, is playing a team that scored three goals in their two most recent games. The Sounders have the second-best xGA in the league but have just one clean sheet to their name. We'll give it a go anyway.
Columbus - Assuming the weather is not awful, Columbus should be able to handle Montreal without an issue. Montreal is almost done with their road trip. Almost. They managed a 1-1 tie against Chicago where they were often the better team, but even in the middle of CCC I think the Crew have the pieces to shut down Montreal. You'll want Yevhen Cheberko ($9.3m) for his league-leading passing numbers, though Andres Herrera ($7.4m) has had great outings when he starts.
Austin - They managed a road CS in a thunderstorm last week, but this week they maybe have more to deal with in Portland's surging offense instead of St. Louis's anemic attack. Still though, they are at home and have the best xGA in the league. Portland has had two good weeks but their competition, Colorado and Houston, are not great. Same recommendations as last week, Brenan Hines-Ike ($8.3m) is the top pick but Oleksander Svatok ($6.4m) worked out well for me last week with BPs from passes and clearances.
Vancouver - Still one of the best defensive teams in the league, their struggles in their past two league matches were due to their offense. Without Gauld they have been stagnant, but outside of the Chicago match their defense has still be stout. Colorado has a pair of road wins at Austin and San Jose and held St. Louis to a 0-0 draw on the road, but their underlying numbers suggest a lot of luck in earning those results. Not a great shout but I still think they're all right this week. I think the choice is Ali Ahmed ($7.5m) who is playing LW in Gauld's absence, though you'll want to check the gameday roster for rotation.
Miami - Another CCC team, I'm not sure why I am picking them this week despite the rotation, they just happen to have matchups I like. Toronto has been woeful and Miami's defense has been decent despite their inability to hold clean sheets. Miami should control this match without much issue even with rotation. They are certainly deep enough. If you want this late punt you'll probably want Jordi Alba ($7.7m) as usually (certainly not last week) his offensive output is still enough for him to be worthwhile.
Luca Orellano (CIN $8.2m) - He picked it up last week in Nashville, with 9 KPs and 7 shots at goal. I am not so confident about a Cincinnati clean sheet given their lack of healthy center backs (Teenage Hadebe is out and both Miles Robinson and Matt Miazga are questionable) and Carles Gil looking like he was back in MVP form against RBNY last week. However, a CS is still a reasonable possibility and Orellano will be back on the score sheet before long.
Brooks Lennon (ATL $6.5m) - He bombed last week again, with zero KPs or crosses as Atlanta donated three goals to NYCFC, but with Kai Wagner out this week I think Lennon is one of the better offensive defender options with his high ceiling.
Wildcard: Salt Lake - They have a very poor defense but the visiting Galaxy will be worried about CCC and will be missing Reus and now Pec is questionable. Paintsil returned, but will they risk him at elevation with a much more important match on the horizon and Paintsil not even playing more than 45 minutes yet? It's an early game so you could park them on the bench to see how they do with pretty much all the options ahead of you. I guess take Justen Glad ($6.8m)?
Midfielders
Albert Rusnak (SEA $11.3m) - He and Benteke are now $0.1m behind Leo Messi as the most valuable players in MLS fantasy, and for good reason. On the road at SJ he had a goal and six BPs as Seattle ran over the Earthquakes doing everything but scoring enough goals to win. It will be a clash of styles against San Diego as both teams are accustomed to possession. The only game where Seattle had less than 55% possession was at RSL, where they had 48%. San Diego's possession has varied but they do have the most passes attempted in the league. Seattle has the second-most despite all their midfield rotation. Rusnak and Cristian Roldan are top two in the amount of progressive passes. Seattle will be the underdogs, but I'm expecting Rusnak will still have plenty of time on the ball to make his impact.
Anders Dreyer (SD $10.5m) - He was not quite the star against LAFC as he had been in other matches (Onni Valakari had the goal with an assist), but he still had eight points with an assist and three BPs. Dreyer is still the locked-in star, though maybe concedes a little to Chucky Lozano who will be taking more free kicks. If you think San Diego will have the better of Seattle, Dreyer is an every-week choice at midfield.
Jack McGlynn (HOU $9.1m) - LAFC is in the middle of CCC and concedes a ton of time and space to opposing midfielders. McGlynn has had a very high floor lately and should easily crest 70+ passes with some attacking involvement on top. I don't think his ceiling is that high with Houston's overall offensive struggles but is well worth including this week.
Martin Ojeda (ORL $10.5m) - As I predicted I'm a little regretful I did not take him last week, as I took Mukhtar instead. Ojeda scored his PK and Mukhtar didn't. I see him getting back on the score sheet against Philadelphia in what seems destined to be a shootout.
Evander (CIN $10.2m) - He sure delivered on the road to Nashville last week. He seems back, back. Of course, this week he gets a potential lightning storm and is questionable on top of that. Proceed with caution, but if he's starting I'm getting him in the lineup.
Cristian Espinoza (SJ $9.3m) - With Seattle dominating the ball he did not get many opportunities, but playing DC should be a more even match. He's got 56 KPs on the season, nearly averaging 10 per game. In a game with goals and Lopez still sidelined, he'll be the one primarily on the ball.
Emil Forsberg (RBNY $9.8m) - Back at home against Chicago's defense. I don't have him currently, but I may be higher on some of these other guys than you are. He's got a good path to points and should be on your radar.
Quinn Sullivan (PHI $8.4m) - Daniel Gazdag has 17 key plays on the season. Sullivan has 23 in the past two games. He's really grown into the role of the playmaker and I expect more success to follow.
Wildcards: Onni Valakari (SD $7.5m)/Georgi Minoungou (SEA $5.1m) - I expect these two to be the starting #9s in the SD/SEA showdown. Valakari had a goal and assist last week while Minoungou had 10 KPs in his 18 minutes off the bench. It remains to be seen how Minoungou plays as the #9, but if he's able to use his speed to get in behind and create havoc, and spend time interchanging with Ferreira to attack off the wing, he could have a very productive day. Both these players are at good price points if you need to save budget. They may easily be duds, but have very high ceilings this week.
Forwards
Leo Messi (MIA $11.4m) - The eternal question: will Messi play? He played 90 midweek and will be needed as Miami are down 1-0 against LAFC. But he's played plenty of three-game weeks in the past, he has no defensive duties so can just do what he wants on the pitch. It doesn't take much for a magical moment from Messi. Of course, he may be surplus against Toronto, who are struggling against everyone. Unfortunate that Messi plays the last match of the week. If you save him a spot you may end up disappointed in having to start Suarez or Allende... or Deandre Kerr? Dangerous game but Messi often makes it worthwhile.
Tai Baribo (PHI $9.6m) - Philly have one of the best offenses in the league and Orlando have allowed 12 goals, tied for worst in the league. Not much more needs be said about this one.
Christian Benteke (DC $11.3m) - He's scored in four of six matches and had six fantasy points in the other two matches. SJ have the worst defense in the league by xGA and it was merely Seattle's ineptitude in front of goal and a very good Daniel performance that kept them from losing 3-1 at home. Benteke should be in for a fun one.
Emmanuel Latte Lath (ATL $9.2m) - Scored in three straight weeks, just watch the highlights from last week to see (a) why Atlanta desperately need a game-changing striker to earn points and (b) how Latte Lath is delivering on his record transfer fee by creating goals from thin air. Dallas has been improved lately but Latte Lath should still be good at home.
Diego Rossi (CLB $9.5m) - Rossi has scored four goals this year, two in Week 1 and two last week. He's been a bit mercurial, but home against Montreal is still a good enough matchup to consider Rossi this week.
Kelvin Yeboah (MIN $10.4m) - NYC showed their ineptitude on defense last week, and Minnesota has been one of the best teams in the year. Oluwaseyi was the star against RSL with a brace, but Yeboah has been the consistent producer on the year and is still the better bet in what is less of a clearly winning matchup. Oluwaseyi is probably still your best bet if you need a sub $8.0m option.
Captain Considerations
Leo Messi - As always. It took him two minutes to score off the bench last week, but he wasn't on the scoresheet midweek against LAFC. If he starts, he's still the best option. If you are holding your captaincy for him and he doesn't... then I guess you go with Suarez or Allende (or Kerr on Toronto).
Christian Benteke - The most reliable player in the game this year. He hasn't hit some of the highs he has last year, but he's still scoring and racking up BPs. Though it's an away game, at SJ is about as friendly as it gets.
Albert Rusnak - Another road player, but Rusnak has been lights out this year. I expect SD to wrestle for control of the game but see it likely ending up similar to their home game against Columbus, which ended in a 1-1 tie with possession almost evenly split 48-52. Rusnak will get his time on the ball and will create chances. Whether the Sounders bury them is up for question, but they'll have chances, they are top two in shots and shots on goal in the league!
Evander - If you're willing to gamble on good enough weather, Evander has to be a top option this week. He's coming back into his MVP-caliber form.
