Postgame Pontifications: What I think I know through Week 10

Every season starts with a degree of perceived certainty, but no matter what we think we know at the start of the season, that’s almost guaranteed to change after we start seeing the games play out.

With their 1-1 tie against the Colorado Rapids on Saturday, the Sounders are now through 10 weeks of the regular season with an additional four games played in Concacaf Champions Cup. They are 3-3-4 in league play (5-4-5 overall) while sitting eighth in the Western Conference, but just three points out of third. Now seems like a good time to give some assessments of what we think we know about this team.

Danny Musovski is a quality backup, but…

Among the concerns coming into this season was the depth at the No. 9 spot. The acquisition of Jesús Ferreira was designed at least in part to address this. Although Ferreira has struggled when asked to play that spot, Danny Musovski has proven perfectly capable of spelling Jordan Morris when called up.

Musovski scored for a third straight game against the Rapids, giving him three goals in MLS play and four overall. Coming off a season in which he had just two goals across all competitions, that’s been a welcome change. Musovski is currently tied for fifth in all of MLS with .79 goals per 90 minutes (minimum 300 minutes played).

What’s particularly encouraging about his production is that it’s not so much the result of some slick finishing form as much as it is a repeated ability to put himself in dangerous spots. Musovski actually leads MLS with 1.23 xG per 90 minutes, and is actually the only qualified player above 1.0.

The Rapids game was a pretty good illustration of what Musovski is doing well. His goal came from a hard run into the box and a well-executed finish from a cross that was just a little behind him. But he was repeatedly making that run and causing centerbacks to react to his movements.

I don’t want to read too much into +/- because it’s heavily influenced by game-state, but it seems notable that Musovski is the top non-Whitecaps player in this category. The Sounders are +1.59 goal-difference per 90 when Musovski is on the field.

This is all very good, especially considering Morris suffered another hamstring injury in the Rapids game. As of this writing, it’s unclear how long Morris will be out. But this is the second time he’s suffered a muscle injury this year, which probably means he’s not going to be a 90-minute player for a bit and that Musovski is going to continue to see the field.

The concern, though, is what happens if Musovski is also out, which is a situation the Sounders found themselves in a few weeks ago. Despite hopes that he might even push Morris for starting minutes at the No. 9, Ferreira has not looked great in the few games he’s had to start there. I think he could potentially play the role as more of a “false 9” as long as he has the right types of wingers around him, but that’s mostly a theory right now.

The other possible solution is calling up Osaze DeRosario from Tacoma Defiance. DeRosario certainly has the body of a classic 9 and he is on an absolute goal-scoring tear right now with eight goals in six games across all competitions, but I’m not sure how much faith there is that he can translate that to MLS.

Ferreira has been solid, just not in the way we expected

Speaking of Ferreira, he was credited with another assist in the Rapids game, a really nice pass to put Kalani Kossa-Rienzi in on the wing. That was Ferreira’s fifth assist in MLS play and his seventh assist overall. Even if you’re not inclined to count secondary assists, he’s still got five primary assists in all competitions. That’s good for almost exactly .50 assists per 90 minutes.

To put that into context, Albert Rusnák had about .40 assists per 90 across all competitions last year in what was ultimately one of the most productive seasons in Sounders history. All of which is to say, Ferreira’s playmaking ability seems to be very good!

Of course, the Sounders picked up Ferreira in part because of his goal-scoring record and that has not shown up … at all. Not only has Ferreira not yet scored, his xG in 659 minutes is a rather paltry .62. That’s not per 90, that’s his total xG off just seven shots. (Musovski, by the way, has four games this year in which he has more xG than Ferreira has all season.)

In the same way that I’m encouraged by Musovski’s repeated ability to put himself in dangerous spots, I’m also worried that Ferreira isn’t doing that. I think it can be credibly argued that the number isn’t entirely reflective of the quality of chances — like the miss he had agains the Rapids — but that doesn’t really change the fact that he’s not getting into those spots often enough.

My expectation is that Ferreira will eventually start scoring. It’s entirely possible that this is mostly a confidence issue and that once he finds the back of the net once he’ll start making the types of runs that will consistently put him in better spots. It’s also possible that he can be effective as more of a “false 9” if he has the right type of wingers playing with him. I’d love to see what he looks like with, say, Ryan Kent and Pedro de la Vega streaking up the field.

But that requires a different gameplan and one the Sounders haven’t really played effectively for any significant stretch under Schmetzer.

Work to do on set pieces

By Opta’s data, the Sounders had eight goals from set pieces last year, which was tied for the sixth-most in the league. They also generated the fifth-most shots from dead-ball plays. They did this while allowing the third fewest shots from set pieces and just two goals (which was tied for the second fewest). In other words, set pieces were a genuine strength of the team last year.

This year, not so much.

It’s obviously still kinda early but the Sounders are one of 10 teams who have not yet scored a goal from a dead ball. Although they’ve generated the second-most shots from set pieces, those are mostly relatively low quality as they rank just 14th in xG from set pieces.

I’m not sure how big of a concern that is, but I am a little more worried about their defense on set pieces. Against the Rapids, I counted at least four open headers off of corner kicks. One of those required Cristian Roldan to clear a shot off the line. The Rapids also got their goal off a set piece. That’s the second goal Seattle has allowed on a set piece this year. I’m also a little worried that just three teams have allowed more xG off set pieces than the Sounders.

We’re obviously dealing with pretty small sample sizes at this point. At this point in the season last year, the Sounders were much more middling than where they finished up. Still, there’s a lot of room for improvement. Offensively, it might just be a matter of Rusnák playing enough to dial in his kicks. Maybe the defensive issues work themselves out, too. But if the set pieces were a big reason why the Sounders were so effective last year despite an otherwise unimpressive offense and nothing I’ve seen this year tells me they can afford a big drop-off.

Much better production from wide areas

One of the biggest areas of frustration last season was how little offensive contributions the Sounders got from wide areas. Until Paul Rothrock emerged as a solid winger late in the season, the Sounders were getting almost literally no production from wide parts of the field. Even with Rothrock’s contributions, the Sounders’ wide players combined for just 12 goals and seven assists last year (of which Rothrock accounted for more than 60%). Most glaring was the production of the fullbacks, who combined for just two goals and two assists in 46 matches.

Drawing direct comparisons to this year is complicated by the fact that the Sounders are now using wingbacks, but the early returns are at least encouraging. In 14 matches, the Sounders already have six goals and five assists from wide players. That includes five goals and two assists from wingbacks and doesn’t even include the production from players like Pedro de la Vega or Jesús Ferreira, who have been deployed more in the center of the field.

This seemingly bodes well for an offense that appears to have more ways to attack defenses than last year.

Need more data…

I know the conceit of this story is about what we know, but there are at least a couple of things I think are important to watch.

Ferreira and Rusnák playing together

If Ferreira really is primarily a playmaker at this point, that complicates the Sounders’ tactical flexibility when it comes to playing him alongside Albert Rusnák. One thing I think we’ve seen is that Ferreira and Rusnák do not complement one another very well if they’re both in the center of the park. The Sounders have tried this in four games and have not scored a single goal in this setup.

What I’m less sure of is how well this can work when they’re both positioned beneath a more dedicated No. 9 like Morris or Musovski. By my count, the Sounders have played 236 minutes with Ferreira and Rusnák as dual-10s, including about 19 minutes against the Rapids. The Sounders have been outscored 3-2 during that time, which doesn’t strike me as particularly compelling one way or another.

The best formation

The Sounders opened the season in a 3-4-2-1 that has sometimes evolved into more of a 3-4-3 depending on the personnel.

What remains to be seen, though, is what formation best suits this team when everyone is fit and available. That has only been made more complicated by the signing of Ryan Kent, who through two substitute appearances looks like he could be another starting-caliber player.

Switching to a 4-2-3-1 would create an obvious place for Kent to play, but it still potentially leaves out two of Pedro de la Vega, Jesús Ferreira and Paul Rothrock. More boldly, they could try to play in more of a 3-2-4-1, but I’m not sure that’s a formation that really works in MLS.

Of course, having too many formation options is not a bad problem, but it is one that Schmetzer will want to solve sooner than later.